Israeli Analysts Discuss Trump’s Ultimatum and its Potential Impact on Hamas Strategy

Israeli Analysts Discuss Trump’s Ultimatum and its Potential Impact on Hamas Strategy

TEL AVIV, Israel — As the initial phase of the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas approaches its deadline, the Israeli government is evaluating its next moves. This assessment comes amidst President Donald Trump’s consistent threats to unleash severe consequences unless all hostages are released.

In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital, several Israeli military experts shared their insights on the potential ramifications for Hamas if the ceasefire collapses.

High Stakes for Hamas

Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror (res.), a former chief of the Israeli National Security Council and a fellow at the Washington-based JINSA think tank, stated that the resumption of the conflict is inevitable if the agreement falters. He noted, “The only alternative is the resumption of the war in Gaza with all the forces that can be allocated. Because we have a ceasefire in Lebanon, we can use huge forces inside Gaza to end Hamas. This is one of the reasons why Hamas didn’t break the truce until now; they realize the alternative is a full-blown war for which they are not ready.”

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem, reinforcing the notion that both countries are aligned in their strategy.

Netanyahu emphasized, “We have a shared strategy, which cannot always be detailed to the public, including when the gates of hell will open. And they will open if all our hostages are not returned, every last one of them.”

Hamas Faces Intensified Israeli Response

Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus (ret.), a former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and current senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, expressed that Hamas’s refusal to release hostages, along with the shifting dynamics in Middle Eastern politics and Trump’s readiness to reshape the landscape, will likely result in a renewed Israeli offensive. He mentioned, “The IDF will resume fighting in Gaza at a higher intensity and with fewer restrictions. The goal will be to defeat Hamas and seize control over the Gaza Strip. I believe that Hamas’s lifeline is the distribution of humanitarian aid, and in the next confrontation, Israel will aim to take control of that process.”

Amos Yadlin, another former chief of IDF military intelligence, echoed this sentiment, stressing the historical anomaly of aiding an enemy that is actively engaged in hostilities. “Never in history have two entities been at war, and one is helping the other survive with food, fuel, and everything else,” he remarked. He also highlighted changes in U.S. policy, noting that the Biden administration had restricted certain heavy munitions, while Trump might lift these limitations, allowing Israel greater leeway in its military actions.

Military Preparations Indicate Potential Escalation

Recent developments reflect Israel’s preparations for a possible intensification of conflict. The Israeli Defense Forces have bolstered their troop presence and mobilized reservists in the Southern Command, readying themselves for any scenario. When approached for information regarding Hamas’s current weaponry, the IDF declined to comment.

According to Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman (res.), who has served as the executive director of the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, Hamas once possessed an estimated 17,000 mid- and long-range missiles. Given the ongoing conflict, this number has significantly diminished. “Current capabilities of Hamas’s long-range missiles are negligible. Mid-range capabilities have likely dropped to less than 100, and assessing short-range capabilities such as mortars and drones is challenging,” Hayman explained.

Trump’s Influence on Israeli Military Strategy

Experts agree that Trump’s statements imply a potential full backing of Israel’s military endeavors against Hamas. Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland, another former head of the Israeli National Security Council, emphasized that leveraging all essential resources into Gaza, including halting the flow of food and fuel, may induce Hamas to reconsider its position on hostages. “This is the only option that could genuinely generate concern within Gaza and compel them to release the hostages,” Eiland stated.

In light of ongoing developments, Israel received a shipment of 2,000-pound MK-84 munitions over the weekend. Defense Minister Israel Katz described this as evidence of the strong alliance between Israel and the United States.

Shifting Tactics for a Sustainable Resolution

As discussions about Israel’s military strategy continue, Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser (res.), a former head of research in the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, proposed a tactical shift. He argued that Israel could adopt a more sustained approach to its military operations, ensuring that it maintains control over territories instead of leaving them vulnerable to Hamas resurgence. Kuperwasser noted, “Israel might conduct attacks differently than before. Rather than just briefly controlling areas, we would retain that control, diminishing Hamas’s authority and ability to survive.”

This long-term strategic commitment could be vital in realizing Trump’s vision of transforming Gaza into a desirable destination, a claim he made during a White House meeting with Netanyahu.

Final Thoughts on Ongoing Conflict

As the situation evolves, Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, indicated that pushing for the collapse of Hamas governance, demilitarization of Gaza, and establishing conditions to secure Israeli citizens are paramount. “The success of this round of fighting relies on Israel’s capacity to choose the timing of its operations strategically,” he concluded. On Sunday, Netanyahu informed special envoy Steve Witkoff of his intent to convene the Security Cabinet to discuss the next phase of the ceasefire agreement.