NASA Updates Risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact on Earth

The probability of a massive asteroid striking Earth is increasing, according to NASA. This alarming news centers around a near-Earth object named Asteroid 2024 YR4.

As recently reported, the asteroid now has a 2.6% chance of impacting our planet, translating to a risk of 1 in 38. This figure has risen from a 1.9% probability just days prior to this announcement, and it was as low as 1% back in late January.

However, despite these figures, there remains a more than 97% likelihood that Asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass by Earth without incident.

Understanding the Asteroid’s Size and Trajectory

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 130 and 300 feet in width. For perspective, the width of an NFL field, from sideline to sideline, is 160 feet.

This celestial body is expected to make its closest approach to our planet on December 22, 2032. As it travels near Earth, astronomers will gain more insight into its trajectory.

Ongoing Observations and Future Predictions

NASA, alongside the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope, plans to observe Asteroid 2024 YR4 in March. This mission is crucial, as it will inform scientists about the asteroid’s path before it moves out of view.

Once the asteroid disappears from sight later this year, astronomers will have to wait until 2028 for another opportunity to study it when it returns to the vicinity of Earth.

Potential Impact Pathway

If Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to be on a collision course, the impact zone would fall along a corridor ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean to parts of northern South America, across the Atlantic Ocean, into Africa, and extending to the Arabian Sea and South Asia. Should it collide with the Earth, it would do so at a high velocity of approximately 38,000 miles per hour.

The Torino Impact Hazard Scale Explained

On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been assigned a Level 3 classification out of a possible score of 10. This scale assesses the potential hazards posed by near-Earth objects and indicates that the asteroid warrants close monitoring by astronomers.

A Level 3 designation suggests a close encounter that requires attention due to the potential for localized destruction should a collision occur. Current calculations estimate at least a 1% chance of such an event. However, astronomers expect subsequent observations will likely reassign the asteroid to a lower hazard level.

Historical Context and Current Outlook

This current alert status for Asteroid 2024 YR4 represents the second-highest evaluation since 2004. During that year, another asteroid, Apophis, reached a Level 4 rating, though further observations later confirmed it would pass Earth safely at a distance of about 20,000 miles in 2029.

Experts, nevertheless, caution against undue concern regarding Asteroid 2024 YR4’s rising impact probabilities. Shortly after the announcement, Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, emphasized that fluctuations in impact estimates are natural. He reassured the public, stating, “No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected. To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point.”

The Role of ATLAS in Asteroid Detection

The discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4 was reported to the Minor Planet Center by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, known as ATLAS. Operated in Chile and funded by NASA, ATLAS encompasses several telescopes worldwide, managed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy. This network enhances global efforts to monitor near-Earth objects.

In conclusion, while the increased odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth are notable, the scientific community remains optimistic about future observations. Continued vigilance will play a crucial role in understanding the asteroid’s trajectory and mitigating any potential threats.

Fox Weather and The Associated Press contributed to this report.