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OTTAWA, Canada — The recent implementation of new tariffs marks a significant shift in Canada’s political climate. Analysts suggest that if the Liberal Party manages to retain power, it may largely owe this reversal of fortune to President Donald Trump’s actions and rhetoric.
Since Trump’s inauguration in 2016, the Conservative Party, which once had a substantial lead over the governing Liberals, has experienced a steady decline in public support.
According to an Ipsos poll released last week, for the first time since the Liberals secured victory in the last federal election in 2021, they have taken the lead, boasting a 38% approval rating compared to the Conservatives at 36%. Just six weeks earlier, the Conservatives held a commanding 26-point advantage. With a general election expected as early as this spring, the upcoming announcement of Trudeau’s successor appears set to influence the political landscape significantly.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, expressed his astonishment at the rapid decline of the Conservative Party, stating that such a drastic change is unprecedented in his four-decade polling career.
Factors Behind the Shift in Public Opinion
Bricker points to two main factors driving this political shift. Firstly, Justin Trudeau, who has seen his popularity wane since he became Canada’s 23rd prime minister in 2015, is scheduled to step down both as leader of the Liberal Party and head of government on March 9. Secondly, Trump’s threats to Canada — threatening tariffs that could impose economic pressure — have also played a crucial role in reshaping public perception.
In February, Nanos Research noted a narrowing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives. The latter party had previously appeared poised to form a “super-majority” with up to 240 members of Parliament (MPs) in the expanded 343-seat House of Commons set to be in place following the next general election.
“That’s completely out the window now,” remarked Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research. He noted that both Trudeau’s impending departure and Trump’s threats have contributed significantly to the recent surge in the Liberal Party’s poll numbers.
Nanos added that Trump has effectively reframed the political narrative. The question has shifted from whether it is time for change to a more pressing concern: who can best manage relations with Donald Trump, seen as a growing existential threat to Canada’s economy?
Conservative Strategy Under Fire
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has been criticized for appearing out of touch. Instead of addressing the imminent threat posed by Trump, they focused on campaign promises to eliminate the Liberal government’s carbon emission tax, a topic that became less relevant as Canadian citizens grew increasingly anxious about cross-border tensions.
Nanos observed that when the Conservatives enjoyed a 27-point polling advantage, it was not due to strong leadership or exceptional strategy. Instead, it reflected widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau and a desire for change, with the Conservatives positioned as the vehicle for that change.
The Ipsos poll further revealed that a striking 86% of 1,000 surveyed Canadians desire an immediate general election to establish a government capable of effectively countering Trump’s tariff threats.
Bricker noted that the Liberal lead, especially in populous provinces like Ontario and Quebec, could increase if Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, takes the reins as the new Liberal leader.
The Growing Support for Carney
According to polling data from Angus Reid, a prominent Canadian pollster, 51% of respondents believe Carney and the Liberals are better equipped to manage U.S. relations compared to the 35% who favor the Conservatives under Poilievre. Many Canadians view Poilievre as advancing a
