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This March has surprised many fans with a noticeable absence of chaos in the NCAA tournament.
Typically known for its thrilling upsets and Cinderella stories, this year’s bracket has largely adhered to expectations, a phenomenon referred to as ‘going chalk’.
For the second time since 2007, and only the sixth time in NCAA history, no 13, 14, 15, or 16 seed achieved an upset. Furthermore, the Final Four will feature all No. 1 seeds for only the second time ever.
According to Johnny Avello, an experienced oddsmaker at DraftKings, this lack of upsets has resulted in a favorable year for bettors, as a popular trend has emerged.
Avello stated, “There were a lot of moneyline parlays. So the bettors have had a very good run this year.” This trend emphasizes that many bettors have taken calculated risks on underdogs, leading to profitable outcomes.
Another recent trend has been the inclination to wager on every potential upset in the first round. Despite the generally disappointing win-loss records associated with this strategy, the return on investment has often been considerable, especially thanks to previous upstarts like UMBC, Fairleigh Dickinson, and St. Peter’s.
However, this year’s tournament has challenged those approaches. The lowest seed achieving victory was a No. 12, specifically Colorado State, which faced off against No. 5 seed Memphis.
Avello confirmed, “The favorites won 12 out of the 16 games straight up on Thursday and went 9-7 against the spread. They were 13-3 on Friday straight up and 10-6 against the spread. We did not see the trend that usually happens.” This consistency among favorites marks a distinct departure from expectations.
Looking ahead, Duke stands as a prominent contender, currently offered at even money to win the championship, as significant support has flooded in for the Blue Devils. Avello noted, “They’ve been the team that’s been bet all year long,” highlighting Duke’s status among bettors.
Regardless of the matchup in the finals, Duke is poised to be at least a 4.5-point favorite. Currently, they are listed as a 5.5-point favorite against a strong Houston team.
The upcoming clash between Duke and Houston will follow the much-anticipated Florida-Auburn matchup on Saturday. Fans can find excitement on the court starting at 6:09 p.m. ET in San Antonio.
With the tournament drawing increased attention, many are eager to see if teams can continue this trend of predictability or if any surprises lurk just around the corner.
The unique circumstances of this March Madness leave both fans and bettors in a fascinating position. While the excitement of upsets may have been absent this year, the sheer talent of the No. 1 seeds has kept viewers engaged and hopeful.
Despite the trend of fewer upsets, bettors still find ways to adapt and navigate the landscape, showcasing the resilience of sports betting strategies.
As March Madness continues, it promises to deliver plenty of dramatic moments and perhaps even a thrilling finish that has so far eluded this year’s tournament.
Stay tuned as the journey unfolds, and join the conversations surrounding the groundbreaking events of this season. Will history repeat itself with another upset, or will the favorites reign supreme in the end? Only time will tell.
