Ecuador Faces Crucial Election Amid Rising Concerns Over Narco-State Threat

As Ecuadorians head to the polls today, they will make a critical choice between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist opponent Luisa González. Noboa, aligned with conservative ideologies reminiscent of Donald Trump, presents himself as a tough opponent of crime and corruption. Meanwhile, González, who mirrors the political strategies of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, aims to strengthen ties with leftist regimes in Latin America.

Noboa’s Tough Stance on Crime

President Noboa has openly rejected Maduro’s legitimacy, refusing to recognize his presidency following what many describe as a manipulated election in 2024. Noboa remains committed to combating rampant criminal violence, pledging to deploy all necessary resources to restore security across Ecuador. According to Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, Noboa’s main focus has been security, a sentiment echoed by many voters who worry about the escalating violence.

Yet, despite his efforts, improvements in safety remain scant. Humire notes that while the president has allocated significant time and resources towards addressing the country’s security crisis, the issues persist and continue to grow. He emphasizes that security must remain the top priority as the election draws near.

González’s Approach to Violence

González presents a contrasting platform. She advocates for an expanded military role in addressing gang violence but is cautious about human rights violations. “González appears to take a softer stance on crime, suggesting that she may prefer negotiation over confrontation with drug cartels,” suggests Mathias Valdez Duffau, a visiting fellow at the Center for International Studies at Catholic University of Argentina. This approach reflects strategies from former President Rafael Correa’s administration, which focused on collaborative crime reduction methods.

Valdez Duffau further warns that while negotiation may create short-term leeway for the government, it often leads to strengthened criminal factions that can co-opt state officials. The risk of becoming a narco-state looms large when governments choose dialogue over decisive action.

Escalating Violence and Insecurity

The urgency surrounding the election is amplified by mounting violence. Ecuador now grapples with the highest murder rate in Latin America, reporting 6,986 homicides in 2024, one of its most violent years to date. In light of these alarming statistics, around 95,000 Ecuadorians fled the country last year as gang wars intensified.

In response to rising crime, President Noboa declared an internal armed conflict in 2024, mobilizing military forces to engage various transnational criminal organizations. This marked a significant step, increasing military presence in prisons and urban areas struggling with gang violence.

Challenges to Noboa’s Hardline Policies

Despite Noboa’s decisive measures, January 2025 marked the bloodiest month in Ecuador’s recent history, with 781 recorded homicides. The government’s strategies have included forming partnerships with private security firms like Blackwater, aiming to bolster Ecuador’s anti-narcotics efforts.

InSight Crime, a nonprofit organization focused on organized crime, describes Ecuador as a pivotal drug trafficking center that routes cocaine from neighboring Peru and Colombia to markets in Central America, Mexico, and Europe. Criminal organizations have deeply infiltrated the local prison system, forming alliances with national gangs.

The Rising Drug Trade and International Concerns

Several criminal groups operating within and outside the prison system collaborate with major drug trafficking organizations such as the Sinaloa Cartel. This cartel, recognized for its substantial influence, is linked to a significant influx of fentanyl in the U.S.

With both candidates receiving around 44% of the vote during the first round, González aims not only to succeed Noboa but also to make history as Ecuador’s first female president. She could potentially steer the country back to leftist economic policies akin to those of Correa, which might reshape Ecuador’s political landscape in the years to come.

The Importance of Legislative Support

The next president faces an evenly divided National Assembly, where cooperation is essential for passing legislation aimed at curbing violence and addressing economic instability. Saúl Medina, a former governor, stresses the necessity for a cohesive strategy post-election focused on combating gang violence.

Medina identifies two main issues demanding attention: fortifying institutions and enhancing police oversight to eliminate corruption alongside pressing reforms to the penal system. “Prisons must cease being operational centers for criminal gangs,” he urges.

A Path Forward for Ecuador

Experts like Valdez Duffau and Humire agree that if Noboa secures the presidency once more, his alignment with the Trump administration may bolster his position to confront long-standing violence within Ecuador. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this election could significantly influence the nation’s trajectory in dealing with crime, governance, and socio-economic stability.

As voters choose their next leader, it’s evident that the implications of their decision will reverberate across Ecuador’s future, impacting not only security policies but also the ongoing battle against the encroaching influence of criminal organizations vying for power within the state.