Trump’s Possible Tax Hike Echoes Bush’s Controversial Promise, Analysts Warn

Public discontent swirled around President George H. W. Bush after his infamous 1988 promise at the Republican National Convention to not raise taxes. Just two years later, he adjusted this stance, supporting a tax increase that strained his re-election bid. Today, analysts are raising concerns that history may be repeating itself as President Donald Trump expresses tentative support for raising taxes to advance his ambitious legislative goals.

During the 1988 convention, then-Vice President Bush famously declared, “My opponent won’t rule out raising taxes, but I will. And the Congress will push me to raise taxes, and I’ll say no. And they’ll push and I’ll say no. And they’ll push again, and I’ll say to them: ‘Read my lips: no new taxes.’” Despite this firm declaration, Bush’s presidency faced significant backlash after the implementation of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990, which included tax hikes.

This week, Trump hinted at a willingness to consider a tax increase for high earners. Reports confirmed by several news outlets reveal discussions about raising the tax rate on individuals making over $2.5 million annually from 37% to 39.6%. In a recent post on his social media platform, Trump acknowledged the potential backlash from the Republican base while expressing a degree of acceptance for a modest tax increase on the wealthy.

TRUMP SIGNALS TAX HIKE FOR HIGH-EARNERS IN LEGISLATIVE PUSH

In his post, Trump stated, “The problem with even a ‘TINY’ tax increase for the RICH, which I and all others would graciously accept in order to help the lower and middle income workers, is that the Radical Left Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, ‘Read my lips,’ the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the Election. NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election! In any event, Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!” This statement stirred renewed debate about the implications of a tax hike on the GOP’s electoral fortunes.

Ross Perot, a significant figure in the 1992 presidential race as a third-party candidate, garnered 19% of the popular vote, complicating the dynamics for candidates like Bush. The unpopularity of Bush’s tax hike contributed to his defeat against then-Governor Bill Clinton in the 1992 election, emphasizing the political risk associated with tax policy shifts.

Analysts note that the political repercussions of Bush’s compromise on taxes resonate today. Many Republicans criticized Bush for appearing out of touch with conservative principles, a sentiment that Trump now faces as he navigates potential tax reform. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been vocal in warning Trump against a tax increase, arguing it could jeopardize his coalition.

GINGRICH SPEAKS OUT AGAINST POTENTIAL TAX HIKES

Gingrich recently articulated his concerns in an interview, highlighting the dangers of deviating from conservative tax policies. He contended, “It would absolutely shatter his coalition. It would mean the entire conservative movement would rise in rebellion, and it would mean every small business in the country would start recalculating who they are going to lay off, if they are even going to stay in business. It would make no sense at all.” His caution reflects the anxieties within the Republican Party regarding tax policy.

Ongoing negotiations among House Republicans are crucial as they seek to finalize Trump’s proposed legislative initiatives, informally dubbed his “big, beautiful bill.” This package is expected to include extensions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and various campaign promises, such as maintaining the tax exemption for tips, overtime, and Social Security payments.

While many Republican lawmakers echo Gingrich’s concerns, others caution against the tax hike’s potential implications for the party. New England College President Wayne Lesperance noted the unsettling parallel between Trump’s current stance and Bush’s past pledge. He stated, “Harkening back to the infamous ‘Read my lips’ pledge made by George H. W. Bush at the 1988 GOP Convention, today’s Republicans must be nervous at the president’s change on what is a sacrosanct issue for the party — tax cuts.”

Lesperance emphasized that the political landscape could shift dramatically by the 2026 midterms, particularly if tax hikes alienate the Republican base as they did in the early 1990s. He remarked, “Facing a Democratically controlled Congress, Bush reneged on his pledge as a compromise to reduce the deficit and pass the 1990 budget agreement. Bush’s decision to compromise on taxes is widely credited with costing him his bid for re-election.”

Longtime Republican consultant David Carney, who served in Bush’s administration, mirrored these thoughts, stating that the tax hike was detrimental to Bush’s re-election efforts. He recalled that the budget deal was beneficial in practice but emphasized that its perception among voters was overwhelmingly negative.

FISCAL CONSERVATIVES REMAIN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TRUMP’S TAX POLICY

Despite the speculation surrounding Trump’s shifting position, some fiscal conservatives remain hopeful that he will not pursue any tax increases. Club for Growth President David McIntosh confidently stated, “President Trump campaigned on not raising taxes, and we are confident that’s exactly what he’ll do.” This assertion underscores the ongoing tension within the party regarding fiscal policies and tax strategies.

When questioned about the potential comparison to Bush, the White House highlighted recent comments made by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She reiterated that Trump aims for extensive tax cuts, maintaining his 2017 tax cuts and aligning with broader GOP tax priorities.

Leavitt stated, “The president wants tax cuts, the largest tax cuts in history. He wants to extend his historic tax cuts from 2017, and he wants to see all the other tax priorities, including no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security. The president has said he himself personally would not mind paying a little bit more to help the poor and the middle class and the working class in this country. I think, frankly, that’s a very honorable position. But again, these negotiations are ongoing on Capitol Hill, and the president will weigh in when he feels necessary.”

Fox News Digital’s Elizabeth Elkind contributed to this report.