Virginia’s Crucial Primaries: Trump’s Shadow Looms Large Over Gubernatorial Race

Virginia’s Crucial Primaries: Trump’s Shadow Looms Large Over Gubernatorial Race

On Tuesday, Virginia, one of the two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, will conduct high-stakes primaries that could attract national attention.

In this competitive swing state, voters will fill out ballots for the Democratic and Republican primaries, choosing candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and state lawmakers for the House of Delegates.

While President Donald Trump does not appear on the ballot, his influential and polarizing agenda continues to shape discussions on the campaign trail in Virginia.

Impact of Trump’s Policies on Virginia’s Race

The President’s Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE, has implemented a mission to reduce government spending and streamline the federal workforce.

These efforts, spearheaded until recently by Elon Musk, have particularly affected suburban Northern Virginia, an area with a sizable population employed by the federal government.

As political science expert Dave Richards from the University of Lynchburg noted, “The policies of DOGE have hit Northern Virginia hard.” This observation underscores the significant impact of federal policies on local constituencies.

Voter Engagement and Early Turnout

Trump’s name and policies have dominated the Virginia campaign trail, energizing voters during the past few weeks. This surge in engagement has led to high turnout for Democratic candidates in the early voting period preceding the primaries.

According to the state Democratic Party, over 189,000 Virginians participated in early voting for the Democratic primaries, a remarkable figure indicating strong electoral interest.

This robust turnout is particularly noteworthy considering that the top-tier gubernatorial race lacks drama, with the candidates already established.

Profiles in the Gubernatorial Race

The contest for governor features Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger as the Democratic challenger.

Should Earle-Sears win in November, she would not only become Virginia’s first female governor but also the nation’s first Black woman to be elected governor. Virginia previously made history with its first Black governor, L. Douglas Wilder, in 1989.

Key Races Down the Ballot

The Republican incumbent, Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has garnered nationwide recognition, cannot seek re-election due to Virginia’s constitutional restrictions against consecutive terms.

While Republicans have secured nominations for lieutenant governor and attorney general, the Democratic primaries witness more competition.

John Reid, the GOP’s nominee for lieutenant governor, could make history as Virginia’s first openly gay elected official in that role.

The Democrats competing in the primary to challenge Reid include attorney Alex Bastani, state Senator Ghazala Hashmi, Prince William County school board chair Babur Lateef, state Senator Aaron Rouse, federal prosecutor and law professor Victor Salgado, and former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee for attorney general, Jason Miyares, will face off against two Democratic challengers, former state legislator Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.

The Political Landscape in Virginia

Currently, Republicans hold all three statewide offices in Virginia, yet Democrats maintain slight majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The upcoming elections will put all 100 seats in the House of Delegates up for grabs, where Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, emphasized the importance of the gubernatorial race, stating that it will set the tone for the other statewide races and the contest for the House of Delegates.

Richards added that the diversity of the Republican ticket and the results from the Democratic primary will affect how diverse the Democratic ticket ultimately becomes.

National Significance of Virginia’s Primaries

Virginia’s primaries are poised to attract attention beyond state borders, as they and New Jersey—where primaries occurred last week—are the only states with gubernatorial elections in the year following a presidential election.

The outcomes are widely viewed as indicators for the upcoming midterm elections, in which Republicans will defend their control of the House and Senate while 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections.

Four years ago, Republicans triumphed in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, breaking a twelve-year losing streak against Democrats in Virginia.

Despite the Republican Party’s challenges in winning statewide contests since 2004, Trump narrowly lost Virginia by six points in the last presidential election, marking a notable four-point improvement from his 2020 defeat.

Challenges Ahead for Republican Candidates

However, Republicans face a difficult historical context heading into November. Since 1977, the party that inhabits the White House has generally struggled to secure victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial elections, with only one exception.

As the primaries approach, all eyes will be on how candidates navigate the complexities of Trump’s influence on their campaigns, as well as how voter sentiment shapes the outcomes of these pivotal elections.