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JERUSALEM—The resurgence of President Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran has sent shockwaves through the clerical regime in Tehran. This decisive shift marks a clear departure from the Biden administration’s more concessionary stance toward the Islamic Republic, according to Middle Eastern analysts.
On Tuesday, Trump issued a stark warning to the Iranian regime. He stated that should Iran carry out any acts of aggression, his advisers would ensure that the nation is “obliterated.” This message appears to have resonated within Iranian leadership circles.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded, stating, “If the primary concern is preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, achieving this is feasible. However, the ‘maximum pressure’ approach is a failed experiment; repeating it will lead to another failure.” Notably, he refrained from directly addressing Trump’s sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and the country’s support for jihadist groups.
Yossi Mansharof, an expert at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, highlights a troubling trend. Despite sanctions, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that Iran’s oil revenue has swelled to $144 billion from January 2021 to January 2024, which is significantly $100 billion more than during the last two years of Trump’s presidency. Mansharof argues that while Biden’s administration imposed sanctions, lack of enforcement enabled Iran to profit significantly from its oil exports, which bolstered its economy.
Mansharof further criticized the Biden administration’s strategy, remarking, “Attempting diplomatic engagement with Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, while ignoring the rampant oil smuggling reflects a miscalculation.” The International community feels increasing pressure to reconsider tactics against Iran.
Experts believe that reinstating maximum economic pressure is a step in the right direction, yet it may not be sufficient. Mansharof warned that Iran’s advancements in nuclear weapon technology necessitate military pressure to disrupt its activities effectively. This could send a clear message regarding its nuclear ambitions and curb the country’s destabilizing actions across the region.
Bipartisan consensus exists regarding the Iranian regime’s classification as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Trump’s National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) articulates aims to “deny Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and counter its malign influence abroad.” This includes crucial funding for U.S.-designated terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Dan Diker, President of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, views Trump’s reinstated pressure campaign as a sharp contrast to Biden’s conciliatory policies. He claims, “Trump’s initial maximum pressure campaign sunk the regime’s financial stability, and his renewed focus emphasizes U.S. dominance and power projection within the volatile Middle East without direct military intervention.”
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), formerly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was established to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for substantial economic incentives. Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018 underscored his administration’s belief that it allowed Iran to pursue a path toward nuclear weapons while financing global terrorism.
Diker points out that Trump’s administration will face a resilient Iranian regime, which continues to extend its influence through terror activities across the region. Efforts to engage diplomatically with European and other powers complicate the landscape, as these nations often resist U.S. initiatives aimed at counteracting Iranian aggression.
Fox News Digital’s Alexandra Koch contributed to this report.