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When former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor, speculation surrounding her political future intensified. Although her decision may leave the door slightly ajar for a potential presidential bid in 2028, the spotlight is shifting away from Harris.
Instead, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, often referred to as AOC, is steadily emerging as a frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. This shift may seem surprising to some, but signs suggest Ocasio-Cortez could eclipse Harris if she opts against a Senate bid, which she is likely to win.
The chances of Kamala Harris securing the presidency in 2028 appear to be diminishing, while AOC’s prospects for capturing the Democratic nomination, and even the White House, seem significantly brighter.
Early Strength in Polls
The performance of AOC in early polling indicates her viability as a candidate. Comparing her current standing to the past, it becomes evident that Ocasio-Cortez is already making significant strides. For instance, at this point in the 2008 election cycle, Barack Obama was still emerging as a credible candidate, yet he was often overlooked in polling. In the 2020 primary, Harris only garnered 7% support in Axios polls, putting her in a distant fifth place.
By contrast, Ocasio-Cortez is already positioning herself as a strong competitor in the 2028 Democratic primary. According to the Race to the White House polling aggregator, AOC holds a solid 10% support rate, placing her third in the rankings behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom, who each hold 13% support. When excluding Harris, AOC’s positioning reflects rising popularity.
Falling Support for Harris
Current polling trends present a stark contrast for Harris. Even when included in the polling discussions, Harris finds herself lagging significantly, with only 21% support. This decline reflects a worrying trend, as Harris’s numbers have dropped by 14 points since the beginning of the year. Conversely, AOC sees her support grow, suggesting an increasing favorability among Democratic voters.
In head-to-head matchups, AOC also appears ahead of Harris, holding a four-point lead in various polls. Political observers note that AOC has also gained traction on betting markets, where she receives favorable odds for a potential presidential run.
Popularity and Fundraising Prowess
Ocasio-Cortez’s influence extends beyond her polling numbers. She has demonstrated exceptional fundraising capabilities, raising over $15 million in 2025, with an impressive 99% of that coming from small-dollar donations. This ability to rally grassroots support is crucial, as it not only reflects her appeal but also her capacity to energize the base.
Although Harris raised a remarkable sum during the 2024 campaign, donor fatigue appears to have set in, revealing a lack of enthusiasm for her potential re-candidacy. The absence of passion for Harris’s return is a troubling sign as a new election cycle approaches.
Engagement and Enthusiasm
One of Ocasio-Cortez’s most notable strengths lies in her ability to attract large audiences. Her public events have drawn tens of thousands of supporters, even in traditionally Republican territories. For example, recent gatherings in Idaho and Montana welcomed over 20,000 attendees, showcasing her broad appeal and potential to unite different factions within the Democratic Party.
During her rallies, Ocasio-Cortez and her fellow progressives inspire significant excitement, a quality absent from Harris’s campaign strategies. This enthusiasm greatly benefits AOC as she positions herself for the upcoming presidential election.
Challenges Ahead
Despite her rising star status within the Democratic Party, Ocasio-Cortez faces questions about her electability in a general election. At just 39 years old during the 2028 election, concerns surrounding her age may arise among voters. Furthermore, her progressive ideology may not resonate with moderate voters, a consideration that could limit her appeal.
Nonetheless, Ocasio-Cortez’s overwhelming support in the Democratic primary landscape suggests she could navigate these challenges effectively. Many past candidates without significant national recognition, such as Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, emerged victorious from such primaries.
Potential Paths Forward
If AOC chooses to run against influential figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in the upcoming midterms, she may further solidify her standing in the party. Polling shows Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by nearly 20 points, suggesting Democrats may favor a younger candidate.
Ocasio-Cortez’s path to the nomination appears significantly more viable than that of Harris, whose lack of sustained voter support raises doubts about her potential as a candidate. AOC’s current momentum may well shape the future of the Democratic Party’s presidential bids.
A Broader Democratic Landscape
The political landscape remains fluid, and while Ocasio-Cortez’s prospects are promising, challenges lie ahead. Her relatively inexperienced political career raises questions, but history has shown that determination and a strong base can lead to remarkable electoral success.
As the race for the 2028 presidential nomination heats up, the Democratic Party will closely observe these developments. Candidates will need to navigate the evolving voter sentiments and demonstrate their ability to unite a fractured electorate.
In the coming months, Ocasio-Cortez will need to sustain her current popularity and enthusiasm to remain competitive. The dynamics of the Democratic primary landscape could shift, but for now, the path ahead seems clearer for AOC than for Kamala Harris, marking a pivotal moment in the potential 2028 showdown.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen how each candidate will adapt to the political climate as they prepare for the challenges that lie ahead. With AOC emerging as a noteworthy contender, the 2028 election will undoubtedly capture the nation’s attention.
