Democrat Mikie Sherrill Leads in New Jersey Governor’s Race According to Latest Poll

Democrat Mikie Sherrill Leads in New Jersey Governor’s Race According to Latest Poll

A recent Fox News poll reveals that Democrat Mikie Sherrill is currently leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points among likely voters, with a reported standing of 50% to 42%. Among a larger group of registered voters, Sherrill holds a 7-point lead at 48% to Ciattarelli’s 41%. Both leads fall just outside the margin of sampling error.

This gubernatorial race centers around the seat being vacated by term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who narrowly defeated Ciattarelli in the 2021 election by about 3 points.

This analysis focuses on registered voter results.

Demographic Trends Favor Sherrill

Sherrill, who serves as a congresswoman, garners significant support from Black and Hispanic voters, college-educated individuals, and voters under the age of 45. A noticeable 15-point gender gap exists in this race, with women favoring Sherrill by 14 points while men lean slightly towards Ciattarelli by 1 point.

On the other hand, Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, secure his strongest backing from MAGA supporters, White Catholics, White men without college degrees, and voters aged 45 to 54.

Party Affiliation and Voting Certainty

The poll indicates that a nearly equal percentage of Republicans support Ciattarelli at 90%, while Democrats back Sherrill at 89%. However, the preference among independents remains divided. Notably, Sherrill benefits from the higher number of New Jersey voters identifying as Democrats compared to Republicans.

Both candidates enjoy a high degree of confidence among their supporters, as 84% of Sherrill and Ciattarelli backers express certainty about their choice. Despite this, room for movement exists, with approximately one in seven voters indicating they might change their minds before Election Day.

Voter Enthusiasm and Perceptions

Interestingly, a larger share of Ciattarelli’s supporters report heightened enthusiasm for voting this year, with 50% indicating increased enthusiasm compared to 42% of Sherrill supporters.

The Fox News survey was conducted after the first gubernatorial debate on September 21. In addition, the survey was influenced by the release of unredacted portions of Sherrill’s military file from the National Personnel Records Center, which came to light on September 25. This incident has prompted significant scrutiny from Ciattarelli’s campaign.

Favorability Ratings

In terms of favorability, the poll shows that 51% of voters hold a positive opinion of Sherrill, compared to 45% for Ciattarelli. Additionally, when it comes to perceptions of honesty and trustworthiness, 56% of respondents view Sherrill favorably against 49% for Ciattarelli.

Governor Murphy’s approval rating is currently slightly unfavorable, at 47% positive versus 48% negative.

Voter Sentiment on State Direction

While more than half of New Jersey’s electorate express dissatisfaction with the state’s overall direction, recent trends indicate that voter sentiment has improved since Murphy’s election. Currently, 46% of voters report satisfaction with state affairs, a 9-point increase from 2017 when only 37% felt this way.

Voter concerns center around two primary issues. According to spontaneous replies, 34% of respondents identified taxes as the state’s most significant problem, while 20% pointed to the cost of living. Other issues such as housing and energy costs were noted by less than 5% of voters.

Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli on Key Issues

Among those prioritizing the cost of living, Sherrill holds a 16-point advantage over Ciattarelli. Conversely, voters who prioritize taxes tend to favor Ciattarelli by 5 points.

Interestingly, only 4% of voters cite President Trump or the Republican Party as the biggest problem facing New Jersey. Nonetheless, a significant 34% mention that their vote serves as a form of opposition to Trump, which is more than double the percentage of those voting to show support for him, which stands at 16%.

Democrats display a more pronounced inclination to oppose Trump with 60% citing their vote as a means of expressing dissent. In contrast, 40% of Republicans indicate that their vote seeks to show support for him, while 56% state he plays no role in their voting decision.

Trump’s Favorability Among Voters

Overall, 42% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, whereas 55% view him unfavorably, resulting in a net negative of 13 points. This sentiment reflects an improvement since 2017 when his ratings were underwater by 26 points.

During the last presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey with a 6-point advantage at 52%. In contrast, Trump captured 46% of the vote, marking an upward trend compared to the 41% he received in both 2020 and 2016.

Political Rhetoric and Public Perception

A majority of New Jersey voters, 54%, believe that the way Republicans currently discuss politics is contributing to an increase in violence. This sentiment is echoed by nearly half, 48%, who feel the same about Democrats.

Final Thoughts on the New Jersey Race

This poll, conducted from September 25 to 28 under the collaboration of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, involved interviews with a sample of 1,002 randomly selected registered voters in New Jersey. The sampling method included live interviews on landlines and cellphones, as well as online surveys initiated through text message invitations. Among the respondents, 822 were identified as likely voters. The margin of sampling error is ± 3 percentage points, with higher margins applicable to specific subgroups.

The results emphasize the competitive nature of this gubernatorial race and the evolving voter sentiment in New Jersey as Election Day approaches.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.