Mamdani Holds Strong Lead in NYC Mayoral Race Ahead of Debate

As the New York City mayoral debate approaches on Thursday, a new Fox News poll reveals that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintains a commanding lead among registered voters. The survey indicates that voters view Mamdani as the candidate best equipped to tackle the city’s pressing issues, also highlighting his strong personal appeal and enthusiastic supporter base.

The poll results show Mamdani with a 21-point advantage, securing 49% of the support from registered voters. In contrast, independent candidate Andrew Cuomo garners 28%, while the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, attracts 13% of the voters.

When focusing on likely voters, Mamdani’s support rises above the crucial 50% mark, reaching 52%. Cuomo trails behind at 28%, with Sliwa close behind at 14%.

Despite officially withdrawing from the race on September 28, current Mayor and independent candidate Eric Adams still receives 2-3% of the vote. Democratic Pollster Chris Anderson, who works with Beacon Research on the Fox News poll, explains that Adams will appear on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline for name removal. Keeping Adams in the poll accounts for the possibility that some voters may still tag him on election day.

Since the previous Fox News survey conducted in September, Mamdani’s popularity has surged, increasing by 5 percentage points among likely voters and 4 points among registered voters.

Demographic Support for Candidates

The analysis delves into the voting preferences among New York City registered voters. Mamdani attracts substantial backing from very liberal voters (78%), those under 30 years old (67%), registered Democrats (63%), and women under 45 (62%).

Cuomo finds support predominantly among moderates (44%), voters aged 65 and older (44%), women aged 45 and over (42%), and independent voters (35%).

Among Jewish voters, Cuomo leads with 42%, while nearly as many support Mamdani at 38% and 13% favor Sliwa.

Sliwa appeals strongly to Republicans (60%) and supporters of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign (58%). However, white voters without a college degree show a divided preference among the three candidates, with each receiving about 30% support.

More than half of nonwhite voters express their support for Mamdani, including 51% of Black voters and 52% of Hispanic voters. Approximately 30% of those groups support Cuomo.

Enthusiasm among Mamdani’s supporters stands out, with 75% indicating they are extremely or very excited about voting for him. In comparison, 59% of Sliwa’s supporters and 43% of Cuomo’s supporters express identical feelings. Furthermore, 89% of Mamdani’s backers are certain they will vote for him, compared to 82% for Sliwa and 75% for Cuomo.

Voting Motivations and Candidate Perceptions

Interestingly, Mamdani’s supporters tend to vote for him rather than against his opponents, with an impressive 88% expressing their support based on his merits. In contrast, a significant percentage of Cuomo’s (40%) and Sliwa’s (32%) backers admit their vote is more a rejection of competing candidates.

The poll raises an intriguing question about voter turnout. Anderson notes the uncertainty surrounding whether voters who oppose Mamdani but feel ambivalent about other candidates will show up to support Cuomo.

Top Issues Affecting Voter Decisions

New Yorkers identify crime (25%), the cost of living (20%), and housing (16%) as the most pressing problems facing the city. Other issues fall short of double-digit mentions, although homelessness closely tracks at 8%.

While public concerns remain steady since September, the perception of Cuomo’s handling has notably shifted. Previously, he held a 12-point lead among voters concerned about crime. Currently, Mamdani leads among voters prioritizing crime by 5 points and maintains his lead on issues of cost of living and housing.

Just 3% of voters consider illegal immigration as the primary issue, but a striking 66% assert that Immigration and Customs Enforcement is too aggressive in its deportation efforts in New York City.

Handling the City’s Key Issues

In terms of who can best manage the city’s significant challenges, Mamdani holds notable advantages. Between 40% and 49% of respondents believe he can effectively address the local economy, housing, taxes, and crime. Comparatively, only 32% to 33% support Cuomo on these issues, while Sliwa receives between 17% and 26% of the vote, peaking at 26% on crime.

Mamdani also shines in personal traits. Nearly two-thirds of respondents assert that he demonstrates care for individuals like them, is honest and trustworthy, and can bring the change necessary. For Cuomo, fewer than 60% recognize him as empathetic, honest, or capable of instigating change. Sliwa receives acknowledgment as a strong leader from just 44% of respondents.

Responses indicate a hidden rivalry in personal perception, as 63% of voters view Cuomo as a strong leader, closely followed by Mamdani at 61%. However, Sliwa trails with only 44% agreement from respondents.

In the past month, all three candidates have experienced a boost in their favorability ratings. Mamdani’s favorability has increased by 8 points, matching Sliwa’s surge, while Cuomo’s ratings have improved by 5 points. Notably, Cuomo has turned around a negative outlook, reversing a net favorability rating of -5 points to a modest +2 today.

The favorability rating for Trump has remained steady at 24%. Comparatively, New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s popularity has improved by 2 points, reaching 55%.

Political Climate and Voter Sentiment

Amid these developments, New York Attorney General Letitia James, recently indicted on mortgage fraud charges, maintains a strong 59% favorability rating among city voters. Despite the controversies, she joined Hochul in rallying for Mamdani, earning an enthusiastic response from attendees. Remarkably, her favorable rating ranks as the highest among those surveyed, although she also struggles with a significant unknown rate at 11%.

The uptick in satisfaction extends to the city itself, with 42% of residents expressing contentment with the current state of affairs, marking a 5-point increase since September.

Final Thoughts on the Mayoral Race

As the first phase of Trump’s Middle East peace deal progresses, the poll indicates a shift in support among New York City voters, revealing a 6-point advantage favoring Palestinians over Israelis, down from an 8-point lead recorded in September.

In the aftermath of the peace deal signed on October 13, the survey reveals that those siding with the Palestinians overwhelmingly back Mamdani (70%). Meanwhile, those in favor of the Israelis are split among candidates: Cuomo attracts 39%, followed by Mamdani at 28% and Sliwa at 23%.