New Jersey Governor’s Race Heats Up as Polls Show Tightening Margin

New Jersey Governor’s Race Heats Up as Polls Show Tightening Margin

A recent Fox News survey reveals that Democrat Mikie Sherrill currently holds a narrow lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race. The poll indicates Sherrill is ahead by 5 percentage points among likely voters, with a tally of 50% to Ciattarelli’s 45%. This represents a shift from her earlier 8-point advantage in late September when she led 50% to 42%.

When factoring in registered voters, the results show Sherrill with a 4-point lead, 48% to 44%. These numbers signal a significant tightening of the race, as Sherrill’s lead sits within the margin of sampling error.

A Shift in Voter Dynamics

Important demographic groups contributing to Sherrill’s advantage include Black voters, individuals under 35 years of age, women aged 45 and younger, college-educated voters, and Hispanic voters. Conversely, Ciattarelli’s strongest supporters encompass MAGA-affiliated individuals, men without college degrees, White men, Catholics, and voters aged 55 to 64.

Notably, about 90% of supporters from both candidates express certainty in their choice. However, a larger percentage of Ciattarelli’s supporters, at 69%, report being extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to 64% of Sherrill’s backers. Both camps have about 10% of supporters indicating they might change their minds before casting their votes.

The Impact of Campaign Attacks

Recent attacks related to the candidates’ pasts have adversely affected their favorability and trustworthiness ratings. Sherrill’s honesty marks have dipped slightly but remain positive overall. Currently, 52% of voters see her as honest, compared to 47% who do not, translating to a 5-point margin down from a commanding 16-point lead just three weeks ago.

Similarly, Sherrill’s personal ratings have also shifted. Last month, she had a positive to negative rating of 51% to 41%, but this month, her numbers are only 50% to 48%, indicating a modest decline.

On the flip side, Ciattarelli has experienced a comparable dip in perceptions. His honesty ratings have declined from a 4-point positive stance to a 2-point negative rating. Additionally, his favorability rating is now a net negative by 3 points, a decline from 2 points positive just a month ago.

Voter Perceptions and Issues at Stake

Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that the allegations regarding Sherrill’s records at the Naval Academy have caused damage to her candidacy, but the manner in which such records were obtained has opened Ciattarelli to criticism as well. Shaw added that Ciattarelli appears to have gained marginally from the attacks, primarily because he was trailing and needed to shift the race dynamics.

Voter perceptions about the candidates remain closely aligned on specific attributes. For instance, 54% of those surveyed believe Sherrill demonstrates strong leadership, a sentiment echoed for Ciattarelli by the same percentage. Additionally, half of the respondents attribute the ability to bring needed change to both candidates.

When it comes to demonstrating empathy, moderate differences emerge. About 55% see Sherrill as someone who cares about people like them, while 49% say the same for Ciattarelli.

Addressing Key Concerns

Voters in New Jersey identify taxes and the cost of living as their top concerns, with 34% citing taxes and 19% pointing to living expenses. Sherrill enjoys a slight edge over Ciattarelli in terms of trust to address these issues, leading by 3 points on taxes and by 6 points concerning the cost of living. Moreover, she is preferred on energy costs, leading by 3 points, and healthcare, where her advantage widens to 14 points. However, a larger number of voters trust Ciattarelli with crime, where he holds a 7-point lead.

The partisan divide remains pronounced, with 92% of Republicans supporting Ciattarelli and 89% of Democrats favoring Sherrill. However, the smaller independent voter group is more divided. Sherrill benefits from a higher proportion of New Jersey residents identifying as Democrats compared to Republicans.

A Look Ahead at the Election

The race is critical for filling the seat of term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. In the previous election, Murphy narrowly defeated Ciattarelli by approximately 3 points. Currently, the governor leaves office with mixed approval ratings, as only 47% of New Jersey voters view him positively, while 49% express negativity toward his tenure.

While more than half of surveyed voters, at 55%, indicate dissatisfaction with the current trajectory of the state, this figure marks an improvement from the 62% who felt similarly before Murphy’s first term.

In both the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, former President Donald Trump received 41% of the vote in New Jersey. Although he performed better in 2024, collecting 46%, he still lost to former Vice President Kamala Harris, who garnered 52% of the electorate.

Today, 45% of New Jersey voters express a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% disapprove of him. This contrasts with eight years ago, when he recorded a 36% favorability compared to a substantial 62% unfavorable rating.

Final Thoughts on the Evolving Race

The New Jersey governor’s race stands as a critical focal point as the election date approaches. With increasing competition and shifting voter sentiments, both candidates are racing to solidify their standing among voters. As the campaign intensifies, it will be crucial to monitor how these dynamics evolve, especially in light of key issues such as the economy and public safety.

The Fox News Poll was conducted between October 10 and October 14, 2025, utilizing a sample of 1,002 randomly selected registered voters from a statewide voter file. The margin of sampling error for the registered voter and likely voter categories sits at ± 3 percentage points.

Reporting by Fox News’s Victoria Balara contributed to this analysis.