Significant Decline in Young Adults Identifying as Transgender Revealed by Recent Studies

Significant Decline in Young Adults Identifying as Transgender Revealed by Recent Studies

A notable shift in the identification of young adults as transgender or non-binary has been documented in new research, suggesting a sharp decline over the past two years.

Fox News Digital highlighted findings from Eric Kaufman, a political science professor at the University of Buckingham. His analysis shows that the percentage of college students identifying as anything other than male or female has dramatically decreased, with numbers dropping by nearly fifty percent within just two years.

In conjunction with these findings, Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University, has presented additional evidence supporting this pattern across a broader demographic.

Research Insights from the Household Pulse Survey

Twenge reviewed data from the Household Pulse survey, which delivers direct inquiries about transgender identification. She elaborated on these findings in an article for Generation Tech.

The Household Pulse data indicated a decline in transgender identification among individuals aged 18 to 22 in 2024. However, she urged caution when interpreting these results, noting that the decrease was only observed during a specific period (July to September of 2024). Furthermore, she pointed out that two out of three survey periods included an option for non-binary identification, which was not available in earlier collections. This change may have influenced the results.

The Cooperative Election Study Findings

Twenge expanded her research using another source, the Cooperative Election Study (CES). This survey, conducted annually by YouGov and managed by Tufts University, examines transgender identification among all U.S. adults from 2021 until 2024, including a distinct question on non-binary identification.

In the years 2021, 2022, and 2024, the CES posed the question, “Do you identify as transgender?” The options were “yes,” “no,” and “prefer not to say.” Importantly, responses indicating a preference not to disclose were categorized as missing data.

Decline Observed Across Age Groups

Since 2021, the CES has also included a question about gender, offering answers of “man,” “woman,” “non-binary,” and “other.” Among 18- to 22-year-olds, the identification as transgender plummeted nearly fifty percent from 2022 to 2024. Additionally, the non-binary identification saw a reduction of more than fifty percent between 2023 and 2024.

Upon examining adults of various ages in the survey, Twenge noted a substantial increase in transgender identification among individuals born before 1980, which includes Generation X and Baby Boomers, compared to those born in the early 2000s. These younger individuals, now between 21 and 25 years old, revealed a decline in transgender identification, particularly for those born in 2005 and 2006, who are currently 18 to 20 years old.

Exploring Theories Behind the Shift

Several theories have emerged attempting to explain this phenomenon. One possibility involves changing societal acceptance. Twenge suggested that as acceptance of transgender identities increased, more young adults felt inclined to identify as transgender or at least to disclose this in surveys. Conversely, declining acceptance may lead young adults to identify less openly as transgender.

Previous analyses conducted by Twenge indicated that while there was an increase in transgender identification from 2014 to 2023, this trend did not apply to individuals over age 45. This inconsistency reduces the likelihood that acceptance changes impacted all age groups equally.

Differentiating Transgender and Non-Binary Identities

Twenge stressed the importance of distinguishing between identifying as transgender and identifying as non-binary. She conducted this analysis partly because the previous surveys referenced by Kaufman did not incorporate questions on transgender identification, seeking to clarify whether there was an actual decline in transgender identification.

By utilizing a nationally representative sample instead of only evaluating elite college students, Twenge aimed for a more accurate representation. Kaufman praised Twenge’s report, calling her work exemplary and noting its alignment with his previous findings based on data from FIRE, Brown University, and Phillips Academy Andover.

The Future of Transgender Identification

Kaufman raised a thought-provoking question regarding the future state of transgender identification. He wondered if the trend’s decline would continue and what ramifications this might hold for cultural progressiveness and evolving attitudes towards gender-related surgeries and diagnoses.

Jonathan Alpert, a psychotherapist based in New York City, interpreted this transformation as a possible natural correction in youth culture. He suggested that previous therapeutic approaches led young people to overly articulate their feelings, often needing to categorize discomfort by adopting labels such as non-binary.

However, Alpert observed that many young individuals might resist the pressure to define every aspect of their identity. He concluded that the study indicates a slow-down in these identity performances, reflecting a shift in priorities among young people.

Emerging Self-Assurance Rather Than Intolerance

He expressed optimism regarding this change, stating that as individuals become comfortable with who they are, they tend to lessen their need for rigid definitions. Alpert described this trend as a sign of growing self-assurance, not intolerance.

Fox News Digital sought comments from Tufts University and the U.S. Census Bureau regarding the research findings in question.