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The future direction of the Catholic Church hangs in the balance following the recent passing of Pope Francis. The world watches closely as discussions about the characteristics of his successor intensify, and opinions multiply in the lead-up to the upcoming papal conclave.
Once the College of Cardinals completes its deliberations, a new pope will greet the world from the iconic balcony at St. Peter’s Basilica. This moment invites an outpouring of commentary regarding the choice of the new pontiff and the pressing question surrounding the age of the next pope.
POPE FRANCIS DEAD AT 88, VATICAN SAYS
With each change in leadership, expectations soar, yet often remain unmet initially. My experiences cover seven popes, yet my definitive views apply mainly to the most recent three: Saint John Paul II, Pope Benedict XVI, and Pope Francis. The selection of a new pope does not occur regularly, and many initial impressions about the new pontiff often prove incorrect.
Pope John Paul II was only 58 years old at his election in 1978, and he went on to serve until the age of 85. In contrast, Pope Benedict XVI was elected at 75 and served for less than eight years before his unexpected retirement, while Pope Francis took on the papacy at 77, leading for over a decade.
It has now been more than 30 years since the Catholic Church welcomed a leader younger than 75. This extended period represented by older men in such a significant role raises questions about the health and vibrancy of the faith’s leadership.
Over the past three decades, the Catholic Church has, at times, seemed to drift aimlessly. Divergent viewpoints among Catholics persist, yet one commonality prevails regarding the church’s vitality: declining Mass attendance.
As reported recently, Mass attendance in much of Europe has steadily declined for years, while areas such as Africa show a marked increase in the numbers of active believers. Latin America, once a stronghold for Catholicism, now faces challenges from the rise of other faiths, especially evangelical Protestantism.
This decline in attendance is unsurprising given that an institution led by individuals primarily in their 70s struggles to engage younger generations in its core mission.
As commentary surrounding the papal candidates begins to surface, it is important to focus on their potential to draw young men into the priesthood and encourage greater attendance at Mass.
The inventory of priests at the end of 2023 stood at 407,000. This number has been on a downward trajectory since the mid-20th century, particularly after the conclusion of the Second Vatican Council in 1965. The decline has moderated somewhat since the vibrant papacy of John Paul II began in 1978.
However, the critical demographic is the age of the average priest, which currently rests at approximately 70 years old. This situation underscores a significant issue facing the Church, characterized by leadership that lacks youthful energy.
Potential candidates for the papacy present an interesting array of profiles within the College of Cardinals. Yet, questions remain about whether the Cardinals are genuinely cognizant of the age-related issues underpinning current challenges.
The youngest cardinal, Mykola Bychok, aged 45, serves as the highest-ranking Catholic official in Australia. Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, who is 51, manages an expansive area including Mongolia. Moreover, a handful of cardinals just past the 50 mark include Cardinal Américo Manuel Alves Aguiar of Portugal and Cardinal Rolandas Makrickas of Lithuania, both currently stationed in Rome.
At least ten additional cardinals are also in their 50s, reflecting a diversity of voices. My hope for the conclave is that these cardinals recognize the pressing need for a vibrant leader capable of breathing new life into the Church’s mission.
As the 185 cardinals engage in discussions regarding the next pope, I long for a repeat of the 1978 conclave when Karol Józef Wojtyła, an obscure Polish prelate, emerged as a dynamic and spirited leader, ready to guide Catholicism with vigor.
The focus of commentary will largely hinge on divisions within the Church. However, a greater uniformity exists among local parishes than many outside observers might believe. The congregations I attend on both coasts reflect a sense of community that escapes the debates dominating headlines. They remain vibrant, well-attended spaces, though increasingly populated by priests from abroad, as American clerical recruitment struggles to inspire young men to commit to a life in ministry.
While this factor may not drive the conclave, I hope that the deliberations lead to the election of a pope capable of addressing the issue of priestly vocations, not just in America but globally. The Church urgently requires priests who can engage new generations and invigorate their spiritual journeys. This goal almost certainly necessitates a pope who embodies youthful inspiration.
Let us hope for a future when the next pontiff, irrespective of his age, can inspire a renewed commitment among clergy and laity alike, fostering a Church that thrives in the modern world.
Hugh Hewitt contributes regularly to discussions surrounding the intersection of faith and public life. He hosts