Assessing Iran’s Military Threat: Can It Really Target the U.S. and Israel for Two Years?

Despite a tenuous ceasefire, Iran continues to assert its capability to deliver significant military strikes against the United States and Israel if provoked. The country’s officials have recently claimed that they can carry out daily missile attacks for a duration of two years, a statement that has raised eyebrows among military analysts and intelligence experts in the West.

Major General Ebrahim Jabbari of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) highlighted the state of readiness of Iranian forces in remarks to the semi-official Mehr News Agency. He stated, “Our armed forces are at the height of their readiness. The warehouses, underground missile bases, and facilities we possess are so vast that we have not yet fully demonstrated our defense capabilities or the effectiveness of our missiles.”

Jabbari further asserted, “In the event of war with Israel and the U.S., we can sustain missile launches at them daily for two years without depleting our resources.” His colleague, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, echoed this sentiment, reminding that several branches of Iran’s military, including the Navy and the Quds Force, remain at the ready and have not yet engaged in full combat. “We have produced several thousand missiles and drones, and their storage is secure,” he added.

Scrutinizing Iran’s Claims

Though these declarations paint a formidable picture, intelligence reports indicate a decline in Iran’s missile readiness. At the onset of the recent conflict, Iran possessed approximately 3,000 missiles along with 500 to 600 missile launchers. However, following extensive Israeli airstrikes targeting military warehouses and production sites, as well as U.S. attacks on nuclear capabilities, this number may have plummeted. Estimates suggest Iran’s missile inventory has been reduced to between 1,000 and 1,500, with only 150 to 200 launchers remaining operational.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated, “The regime faces increasing pressure to either employ its missiles or see them rendered obsolete due to Israeli strikes on their launch facilities.” Danny Citrinowicz from the Institute for National Security Studies added that replacing these missiles is a complicated endeavor given that Israel has targeted Iranian missile production capacity.

Potential for Direct Attacks

While Iranian officials have hinted at the possibility of strikes against U.S. interests, experts emphasize that such capabilities are limited. Citrinowicz noted that the most plausible scenario for an Iranian attack on the U.S. would involve exploiting its growing military relationship with Venezuela. “Establishing a military presence in Venezuela has been a strategic goal for Iran, yet any such operation is very uncertain and would face significant hurdles,” he explained. Hence, retaliation from Iran would more likely focus on American personnel and assets stationed in the Middle East.

Military expert Can Kasapoglu from the Hudson Institute shared insights on Israel’s objectives in the current conflict. He emphasized that Israel’s targets extend beyond missile production facilities, aiming to undermine Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and advanced weaponry programs. “While we can’t fully ascertain the damage to Iran’s centrifuges, we are confident this conflict has significantly setback their nuclear ambitions for years to come,” he stated.

Understanding Regional Threats

Kasapoglu elaborated on Israel’s focus on Iran’s solid-propellant, medium-range ballistic missiles, which possess high speeds and the capability for evasive maneuvers. He argued that even with recent setbacks, Iran remains the largest ballistic missile power in the Middle East. Iran’s ability to penetrate Israeli airspace during the recent conflict underscores its persistent threat.

Despite the challenges facing Iran’s military stockpile, the country maintains a deeper reserve of missiles compared to Israel, supplemented by U.S. assistance. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen, continue to present a challenge in the region. The Houthis have recently launched maritime attacks, further complicating the security landscape.

The Role of Proxies in Iran’s Military Strategy

Kasapoglu expressed particular concern about the Houthis, noting claims of Chinese satellite companies providing them with real-time targeting data. This new intelligence implies that Iran’s regional influence remains potent despite ongoing military pressures.

“Iran still possesses significant asymmetric capabilities in maritime warfare and maintains a transnational terrorist network. However, deploying these resources risks further escalation and potential ruin,” cautioned Taleblu. He noted that the dramatic storytelling often employed by Iranian officials forms part of their broader deterrence strategy.

The Current State of Affairs

The recent hostilities, termed the “12-Day War,” concluded with a ceasefire negotiated by the U.S. Yet the geopolitical situation remains volatile. While Iran boasts about its military potentials, the evidence of battlefield losses and manufacturing disruptions indicates a precarious military posture. Analysts largely agree that while Iran retains the capacity for force projection and threatening U.S. interests in the region, its ability to execute sustained, high-intensity attacks has been significantly reduced.

In essence, Iran may still pose a danger on the regional stage, but claims of its capacity to strike the U.S. and Israel for an extended period need careful examination. For now, it appears that Iran’s assertive proclamations may resonate more loudly than its actual military capabilities.