Could Asia See Its First Pope in History?

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan — As the College of Cardinals is set to convene in the Sistine Chapel for the election of the next leader of the Catholic Church, the notion that an Asian pope might emerge has gained unprecedented traction.

Among the 23 eligible cardinals from Asia, one name stands out prominently: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, often referred to as the ‘Philippine Francis.’

At 67 years old, Tagle is noted for his close ties to Pope Francis, having served as the pontiff’s envoy to Asia during the special Jubilee Year from 2015 to 2016. During this time, he made a brief visit to Taipei, Taiwan. Additionally, Tagle accompanied Pope Francis on his inaugural Asia trip in 2014, which included a visit to South Korea.

Recent Trends in Asian Catholicism

In the wake of Pope Francis’s passing, Taiwan is closely monitoring the potential shifts in Vatican-China relations, reflecting broader geopolitical concerns that intertwine with religious leadership.

Pope Francis achieved notable milestones in Asia, becoming the first pope to visit both Myanmar in 2017 and Mongolia in 2023. According to Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy expert at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, Mongolia, though home to a minuscule Catholic population of approximately 1,400, now has a cardinal, albeit an Italian-born one aged just 50, diminishing his prospects for papacy.

Potential Candidates from Asia

Another serious contender for the papacy is Cardinal Charles Maung Bo from Burma, who at 76 leads a Catholic community that represents about 1% of his country’s population. Reports from South Korean media also highlight Cardinal Lazarus You Heung-sik, 74, as another leading figure in the race to succeed Pope Francis.

The Catholic Church in South Korea is experiencing rapid growth, as noted by Tu. He pointed out a significant trend of conversions from Buddhism and Protestantism to Catholicism.

Unlike Brazil, where the Catholic population is dwindling in favor of Evangelical denominations, South Korea’s Catholic community is on an upward trajectory. Lazarus You Heung-sik has been instrumental in promoting this trend and was elevated to cardinal status by Pope Francis in 2022.

The Impact of Leadership on the Church

Pope Francis’s influence may mark him as one of the most pivotal pontiffs in history. Although his tenure lasted just over 12 years, he appointed 80% of the cardinals eligible to vote for his successor. His decisions reshaped the College of Cardinals, leading to a unique scenario where European cardinals will be in the minority during the upcoming conclave.

However, some analysts caution against assuming that the next pope will mirror Francis’s progressive approach. The new cardinals, many of whom were appointed by Francis, are viewed as more conservative.

The Historical Context of Asian Cardinals

The representation of Asian cardinals does not accurately depict Catholic demographics in their home countries. In Japan, for example, Catholics constitute less than 0.5% of the population, yet the presence of a socially active Japanese cardinal is notable. India, a predominantly Hindu nation, holds a significant number of cardinals—six in total—compared to five from the Catholic-centric Philippines.

Despite this landscape, experts continue to believe that Cardinal Tagle is the most probable Asian candidate for the papacy. His progressive educational and social viewpoints, however, hold the potential for controversy. Tagle has openly criticized the Church’s previous harsh rhetoric toward LGBTQ members and remarried divorcees, advocating for a more compassionate and understanding approach. This aligns with Pope Francis’s directive, established in 2015, urging the Church to embrace complex human experiences.

The Potential of a Progressive Pope

Should Tagle defy expectations and ascend to the papacy, his leadership would likely invigorate the Church’s progressive elements. His focus on serving marginalized communities has garnered him admiration throughout Asia, complemented by a relatable personal style. Tagle prefers to be addressed as ‘Chito,’ eschewing formal titles.

Tu shared a poignant account that illustrates Tagle’s innate compassion. Following the unexpected death of a young seminarian, Tagle chose to join other senior members of the seminary in visiting the grieving family. He later delivered a heartfelt sermon, equating the Church’s role with that of a mother grieving the loss of a son. Tu remarked on Tagle’s unique ability to connect with individuals in a way that resonates deeply.

A Pivotal Election for the Future of the Church

The ennobling act of electing the next pope will undoubtedly serve as a watershed moment for the Catholic Church. Importantly, this will be the first time candidates from Asia are actively included in the discussions shaping the future of the Church.

As the world watches closely, the potential election of an Asian pope symbolizes not just a geographic shift, but a broader restructuring of ideology and pastoral focus. The Church stands at a crossroads, and the implications of this election may reverberate for generations to come.