Ecuador Set for Presidential Runoff: Incumbent Noboa Faces Leftist Challenger González

Ecuador’s journey toward selecting its next president is heading to a decisive runoff election in April. This crucial face-off will occur between conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa and leftist lawyer Luisa González.

In the first round of voting, which took place recently, neither candidate achieved the required majority. However, both Noboa and González significantly outperformed the other fourteen candidates, each securing nearly 44% of the vote according to results released on Monday.

A Repeat of October’s Showdown

The impending runoff, set for April 13, mirrors the October 2023 snap election that catalyzed Noboa’s temporary presidency. Both candidates are now in fierce competition for a full four-year term, with promises to address the rampant criminality that has plagued Ecuador in recent years.

The alarming surge in violence is largely attributed to cocaine trafficking originating from neighboring Colombia and Peru. With many citizens experiencing crime firsthand, their collective grievances play a pivotal role in deciding whether a third leader in four years could revitalize Ecuador or if Noboa merits an extended tenure.

Front-Running Candidates

Noboa, inheritor of a wealthy banana industry fortune, and González, a mentee of Ecuador’s most significant leader of this century, emerged as front-runners in the election. With 92.1% of ballots counted, Noboa received approximately 4.22 million votes, equating to 44.31%. Gonzalez closely followed with around 4.17 million votes, or 43.83%. The remaining candidates were significantly behind.

Ecuador mandates voting participation, and electoral authorities reported that more than 83% of the country’s approximately 13.7 million eligible voters cast their ballots.

Challenges of the Noboa Administration

Under Noboa’s leadership, the homicide rate decreased from 46.18 to 38.76 per 100,000 individuals between 2023 and 2024. Still, the current rate remains alarmingly high compared to just 6.85 per 100,000 in 2019. Moreover, other serious crimes, including kidnapping and extortion, have reached new heights, instilling fear among the populace.

“For me, this president is disastrous,” expressed Marta Barres, a 35-year-old voter who accompanied her three teenage children to the polls. “Can he change things in four more years? No. He hasn’t done anything.”

Barres, who faces monthly fees to avoid harassment from local gangs, indicated her support for González, believing she could create impactful changes to reduce crime and bolster the economy.

A Complex Political Landscape

Noboa previously triumphed over González in the October 2023 runoff resulting from then-President Guillermo Lasso’s controversial decision to dissolve the National Assembly, thereby shortening his own term. Both candidates had only brief political careers before launching their presidential aspirations.

To win outright in the first round, a candidate needed either 50% of the votes or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up.

Heightened Security for the Election

Election security was a key focus, with over 100,000 police officers and military personnel mobilized nationwide to protect voters. Among them, at least 50 officers accompanied Noboa and his family to a polling site in Olón, a small coastal community where the president cast his ballot.

Noboa’s Entrepreneurial Origins

At 37, Noboa began his career in the event planning industry at age 18 before joining the family business, Noboa Corp. He held various management roles in shipping and logistics. His political engagement began in 2021, winning a seat in the National Assembly, where he chaired the Economic Development Commission.

During his last 15 months in office, Noboa’s hardline strategy against crime has sparked both support and criticism. His controversial measures include declaring a state of armed conflict in January 2024, which empowered the military to combat organized crime effectively. Additionally, he sanctioned a police raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito to apprehend former Vice President Jorge Glas, a fugitive involved in corruption.

Despite the criticism, Noboa’s strong stance has garnered support from voters who believe he is making strides against organized crime. “Noboa is the only person hitting organized crime hard,” asserted German Rizzo, a retiree who voted for the incumbent.

The Rise of González

González, 47, has held multiple government roles during former President Rafael Correa’s tenure from 2007 to 2017. Correa’s administration was marked by populist and increasingly authoritarian policies. Following his condemnation in a corruption scandal, he was sentenced to prison in absentia in 2020.

Despite her prior government experience and a brief legislative career cut short by Lasso’s dissolution of the National Assembly, González remained relatively unknown until her party appointed her as its presidential nominee.

Implications for Noboa’s Campaign Strategy

Quito’s University of the Americas professor Maria Cristina Bayas labeled the first round’s results as a notable victory for Correa’s party, especially given pre-election polls that had predicted a more significant gap between the candidates.

Esteban Ron, dean at the International University SEK, remarked that Noboa might need to adjust his campaign strategy, fearing he may have reached his voting limit. He attributed González’s strong performance to various challenges Noboa’s administration has faced.

A Discerning Electorate

With elections underway, many voters remain uncertain about who to support. Architecture student Keila Torres expressed skepticism about any candidate’s ability to significantly reduce crime or corruption embedded in the government. “If I could, I wouldn’t be here,” said Torres, reflecting on her experiences of witnessing robberies and narrowly escaping danger.

This election underscores a critical moment for Ecuador, offering insight into the future political landscape and the socio-economic stability of the nation.