How Donald Trump Shapes Global Events Amid Rising Tensions

Even the harshest critics of President Donald Trump may ultimately concede that he has significantly influenced both international and domestic affairs since his return to office five months ago.

His strategic approach, often described as ‘masterful ambiguity’, played a critical role during the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, a strategy that history will likely recognize as effective.

Whether you attended the Army’s birthday parade, participated in a ‘No Kings’ rally, or watched the U.S. Open on Father’s Day, one key overarching narrative emerges from the weekend’s activities. President Trump has demonstrated remarkable control over events developing in the Middle East.

The consensus among serious analysts in Israel underscores this point. For instance, Amit Segal of Israel’s Channel 12, a respected journalist and analyst, asserts that President Trump provided Prime Minister Netanyahu with a green light to launch strikes against Iran during this most recent round of conflict.

The Iran-Israel Conflict Takes a New Turn

The recent hostilities saw Iran directly engage in conflict with Israel on two separate occasions: first on April 13, 2024, and again on October 1 of that same year. In these attacks, Iran fired hundreds of missiles targeting civilian areas in Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces, backed by the United States and its allies, successfully intercepted these assaults, though Israel incurred some losses.

Following the October 7 attacks, Iran accelerated its efforts to enrich uranium, taking steps toward nuclear armament. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered preparations for the recent strikes shortly after President Trump’s substantial victory in the November elections.

To proceed with military actions, Netanyahu required at least implicit approval from Trump. He received this after the conclusion of a 60-day window that Trump had given to the Iranian leadership, urging them to engage in serious negotiations regarding their nuclear program.

Errors in Strategic Calculation

Iran’s miscalculation in negotiating with the President turned out to be a pivotal error. In recent weeks, reports surfaced regarding Iran’s desperate attempts to persuade the U.S. to intervene and curb Israel’s military operations against the Tehran regime, which has been in power since 1979. Under the leadership of the aging Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran has endured significant internal strife stemming from its leadership’s poor decisions.

Khamenei’s regime, long characterized by repression, has spent decades and substantial resources creating proxy forces in Hezbollah, Hamas, and other factions, intending to challenge Israel. Yet these moves have repeatedly failed to prevent military action directed at Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a broader context, Khamenei has also been implicated in attempts to execute plots against Trump and other U.S. officials, especially following the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, a key figure in Iran’s terror network.

Shifts in U.S. Positioning

In just five months, Trump’s administration transformed the U.S. stance from urging restraint with messages like ‘don’t attack Rafah’ in Gaza, to providing explicit support for military action against Iran, stating that they refuse to negotiate in good faith.

Consequently, Netanyahu acted decisively, and for the first time, Israel’s military leadership endorsed the unpredictable strikes against Iranian targets.

A Legacy of Strategic Maneuvering

Throughout this period, Trump has maintained an intriguing form of strategic ambiguity regarding his level of involvement. This approach reflects a historical precedent set by figures like Sir John Lawrence, who practiced a policy of ‘masterful inactivity’ toward Afghanistan in the late 19th century while achieving substantial diplomatic success.

Even without a deep understanding of historical precedents, Trump navigates the complexities of the modern geopolitical landscape with a keen sense of timing and opportunity. His willingness to mediate peace offers a stark contrast in addressing adversarial nations, while simultaneously warning them against attacks on Americans.

The past two months of negotiations between U.S. representatives and Iranian officials opened a crucial window for Iran to mitigate its risks but ultimately failed. Trump suggested he might re-engage, but U.S. leverage has now greatly increased as the situation unfolds.

Risk and Opportunity

As Trump allows Israel time to erode Iran’s capabilities, he subtly communicates a willingness to escalate military action should Tehran continue to pose threats. Although not stated publicly, there are clear warnings that a military confrontation could ensue if Iranian aggression persists.

Trump has proven to be an effective communicator, conveying important messages across various platforms. He emphasizes the need for national pride while addressing critical issues, from military readiness to immigration policies that have dominated headlines recently.

Moreover, Trump’s assertion that the U.S. borders are secured and that criminal elements must clear out or face consequences forms part of his broader messaging strategy aimed at reshaping public awareness and response.

Final Thoughts on Trump’s Tenure

As the nation approaches another pivotal election cycle, Trump will continue to engage with both allies and adversaries. His experience in the political arena, combined with his capacity to interpret public sentiment, positions him uniquely for the challenges that lie ahead.

With 43 months remaining in Trump’s current term, the potential for continued impactful governance looms large. His early successes provide a peek into what may follow in the coming years, making it essential to track these developments carefully.

Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of ‘The Hugh Hewitt Show’, broadcasting weekday mornings across America. He holds a constant focus on constitutional law, national security, and American politics. Hewitt has contributed extensively to major national news outlets and has enjoyed a long career in both broadcasting and academia.