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JERUSALEM—President Donald Trump’s revival of the maximum pressure campaign against Iran has sent shockwaves through the clerical regime in Tehran, establishing a stark contrast with the Biden administration’s previous conciliatory approach, as noted by Middle Eastern experts.
On Tuesday, Trump issued a stern warning to the Iranian regime, stating that any assassination attempts against him would result in Iran being “obliterated.” His message has garnered significant attention, highlighting the palpable stress among Iranian leaders.
In a response that indicated the regime’s heightened concern, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remarked, “If the main issue is ensuring that Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, this is achievable and not a difficult matter.” He further criticized the maximum pressure strategy as a “failed experiment,” cautioning that attempting it again would only lead to more failures. Notably, he did not address Trump’s recent sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports or its support for terrorist organizations.
Despite oil sanctions, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals a significant uptick in Iran’s oil revenue, which soared to $144 billion during the first three years of Biden’s presidency. This figure is a staggering $100 billion increase compared to the last two years of Trump’s administration, according to Yossi Mansharof, an Iran analyst at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in Israel.
Mansharof highlighted that while the Biden administration imposed sanctions, its failure to enforce them allowed Iran to benefit economically from its oil exports. He deemed this approach a flawed strategy, arguing that diplomatic engagement with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must consider the regime’s ongoing oil smuggling activities.
Reports have surfaced indicating that the Biden administration extended sanctions waivers, which purportedly facilitated regular payments amounting to $10 billion into Iran’s economy. Mansharof expressed support for Trump’s reactivation of the maximum economic pressure, but he stressed that military pressure might also be necessary to disrupt Iran’s nuclear ambitions and destabilizing activities.
Both Republican and Democratic administrations have characterized Iran as a leading global sponsor of terrorism. Trump’s recent signing of the National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) exemplifies this stance, as it aims to counter Iran’s malign influence and prevent its access to nuclear weapons.
Dan Diker, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, noted that Trump’s maximum pressure campaign starkly contrasts the Biden administration’s more defensive and conciliatory tactics. He emphasized that the previous maximum pressure effectively bankrupted the Iranian regime and showcased Trump’s commitment to exerting U.S. influence in a volatile Middle East.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), former President Obama’s flagship foreign policy initiative, was intended to curb Iran’s nuclear ambition in exchange for significant economic incentives. However, Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, branding it “the worst deal in history,” asserting that it failed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and financially supporting global terrorism.
Diker cautioned that Trump will confront a resilient Iranian regime expanding its terror influence throughout the region, specifically in Israeli-controlled territories. As Iran continues its diplomatic overtures with European and other global powers, the U.S. strategy remains focused on countering the regime’s destabilizing actions.
Fox News Digital’s Alexandra Koch contributed to this story.