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JERUSALEM—Former President Donald Trump’s decision to reinstate his maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran has sent shockwaves through the clerical regime in Tehran. This move marks a stark departure from the Biden administration’s more lenient approach to this contentious government, as noted by Middle East experts.
On Tuesday, Trump issued a stern warning to Iranian leaders, declaring that any plans for assassination would result in the country being “obliterated.” This provocative message seems to have caught the attention of Iranian officials.
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, “If the primary goal is to ensure that Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, this can be accomplished and isn’t overly complicated.” He went on to criticize the maximum pressure strategy as a “failed experiment,” asserting that repeating this strategy would only lead to further failure. Notably, he refrained from commenting on Trump’s latest sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and the regime’s support for terrorist organizations.
Impact of Sanctions on Iran’s Economy
Yossi Mansharof, an analyst at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in Israel, highlighted the financial repercussions of sanctions during a conversation with Fox News Digital. Despite the intense oil sanctions imposed on Iran, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals a significant uptick in the regime’s oil revenue, which reached $144 billion in the first three years of Biden’s presidency (January 2021–January 2024). This figure represents a staggering $100 billion increase compared to the final two years of Trump’s administration.
Mansharof elaborated, “While Biden tightened sanctions, he did not rigorously enforce them. This inaction allowed Iran to benefit economically from its oil exports, effectively providing critical support to its economy. This strategy of attempting diplomatic engagement with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei while overlooking Iran’s oil smuggling operations appears fundamentally flawed.”
Contentions Surrounding U.S. Sanction Policies
The conversation has also touched on the Biden administration’s controversial decision to extend sanctions waivers. Reports indicate that this policy enabled billions of dollars to flow into Iran’s economy, an action that Mansharof views unfavorably.
He commended the reinstatement of the maximum pressure campaign, but cautioned that given Iran’s advancements in weapons development, it remains uncertain whether this strategy will yield the desired results. “We need military pressure on Iran to disrupt its activities, clearly communicate our stance on its nuclear aspirations, and prevent additional destabilizing actions,” he advised.
Bipartisan Concerns over Iran’s Activities
Both Republican and Democratic administrations have consistently classified the Iranian regime as a major state sponsor of terrorism. Trump’s recent signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) aims to deny Iran all avenues to obtain nuclear weapons and counter its malign influence internationally. The regime has been linked to the financing of terrorist groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, commented, “Trump’s renewed maximum pressure campaign serves as a clear differentiation from the Biden administration’s defensive and often conciliatory approach towards Iran.”
He further elaborated that Trump’s initial maximum pressure efforts, coinciding with the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), resulted in significant economic damage to the regime. This approach emphasizes Trump’s commitment to maintaining U.S. prominence and power projection in a region plagued by terrorism, while avoiding direct military engagement.
A Critical Examination of the JCPOA
The JCPOA, negotiated during Barack Obama’s presidency, sought to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for substantial economic incentives. However, Trump’s withdrawal in 2018, which he labeled as “the worst deal in history,” sparked significant debate. At the time, he declared, “The essence of the Iran deal was a misleading narrative that a violent regime was solely interested in peaceful nuclear energy.”
According to Trump’s administration, the JCPOA failed to effectively prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons and, conversely, allowed the nation to fund global terrorism.
Diker emphasized that Trump now faces the challenge of an Iranian regime that continues to extend its influence across the region, particularly concerning developments in the Israeli-controlled West Bank. He remarked that Iran is simultaneously engaging in diplomatic maneuvers with European powers to counteract U.S. efforts to tighten the screws on the regime.
Fox News Digital’s Alexandra Koch contributed to this report.
