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Israel Adapts to Regional Turmoil: New Strategies Amid Syria’s Power Shift
TEL AVIV — The Israeli Air Force commenced operations against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group in Damascus, Syria, on Thursday, marking a significant escalation in response to increasing instability. This unrest follows the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, which has left a power vacuum exploited by insurgent groups linked to al Qaeda.
In the wake of Damascus falling on December 8, 2024, Israeli forces were deployed to the demilitarized buffer zone bordering Syria. Simultaneously, Israel launched a diplomatic initiative aimed at influencing the shifting balance of power in the region.
“The deployment of Israeli troops is focused around the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and the northern Golan Heights,” explained retired Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This is largely along the Bravo Line, which marks the boundary of the buffer zone.”
As security concerns mount, Conricus highlighted the primary threat posed by various jihadi groups intent on invading Israeli communities in the Golan Heights. “Until the security dynamics in Syria stabilize and Israel can secure guarantees from a recognized authority, troops will remain deployed,” he stated.
Far-Reaching Impact of Global Indifference
While many international players may overlook the ongoing violence in Syria in hopes of averting a resolution to the prolonged crisis, Israel remains acutely aware of the implications. This has prompted the IDF to conduct over 300 strikes against various targets in Syria, including the air force bases of Assad’s regime and suspected chemical weapons facilities. This military campaign began shortly after the regime’s fall.
On Sunday, the situation escalated further when new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, conducted an assessment in the buffer zone. His presence marked a significant moment as he became the first chief of staff to physically enter Syria.
“Following the regime’s collapse, Israel devastated Syrian military capabilities to ensure advanced weaponry and air defense systems do not fall into the wrong hands,” asserted John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “This measure is crucial should Israel need to conduct future operations over Syria.”
Moreover, Israel has established checkpoints in certain Druze areas close to the border, seeking to protect the Druze community. The Druze, who represent a loyal minority within Israel, play an integral role in the IDF which underscores Israel’s commitment to ensuring the safety of Syrian Druze communities near its borders.
Growing Sectarian Violence Heightens Security Concerns
The recent surge in violence against minorities, including the murder of approximately 1,000 Alawites and several Christians in the coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia, underscores the alarming transformation in Syria under the new administration led by al-Sharaa. This leader is affiliated with the al Qaeda-linked group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, following Assad’s ousting.
Conricus noted that such atrocities validate Israel’s security strategy. “The persecution of religious minorities poses a substantial risk to regional stability,” he remarked. “Until a legitimate Syrian authority controls the weapons within the country, Israel cannot risk civilian lives on its side of the border.”
He further expressed concerns regarding Iranian involvement. “Organizations like Hezbollah continue to attempt weapon smuggling into Syria, and Iran is actively pursuing proxy operations in the region. Turkey’s actions also add complexity, as their imperialistic tendencies could spark confrontations,” he explained.
The Regional Balance of Power: Israel’s Perspective
Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, emphasized Israel’s objective to keep Syria weak and decentralized, rather than unified under extremist forces. “Turkey supports HTS, and many in Israel view Ankara as antagonistic,” he noted, “especially given its historical support for Hamas.”
While Russia opposes the U.S.-led coalition of which Israel is a key member, there has been no significant direct conflict between the two nations. Notably, Russia has refrained from impeding Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian assets within Syria.
According to reports, Israel is urging the U.S. to facilitate the fragmentation of Syria, allowing Russian forces to maintain their bases in the region to counteract Turkey’s influence.
Since intervening in Syria in 2015 on behalf of Assad, Russia’s presence has marked a new chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israel and Russia have established mechanisms to avoid accidental clashes during IDF operations against Iranian threats.
Recognizing Threats: The Lessons Learned
Spyer pointed out that Israel recognizes HTS as a tangible threat. Their history shows a pattern of hostility toward Israel and support for extremist actions. Recent conflicts have solidified Israel’s resolve to remain cautious regarding Sunni Islamist groups, even those that may profess moderate views.
“The experiences leading up to and during the conflict on October 7, as well as during the Gaza war, have taught Israelis to be wary of Sunni Islamists,” he cautioned.
This ongoing strategic evaluation reflects Israel’s commitment to safeguarding its interests amid the complexities of a shifting regional landscape. In a volatile environment marked by sectarian strife and shifting alliances, Israel’s adaptive strategies demonstrate a proactive approach to national security.
As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, Israel’s dual focus on military preparedness and diplomatic maneuvering remains integral to navigating the complexities of this multifaceted crisis.
