NFL Draft Quarterback Decisions That Redefined the League in 2025

When it comes to drafting quarterbacks, NFL teams often face daunting choices. The statistics indicate that teams are more likely to misfire on these crucial decisions than to make the right pick. Furthermore, teams frequently regret passing on promising quarterbacks, allowing their rivals to capitalize and dominate in subsequent seasons.

Over the last eight drafts, the league has witnessed a series of high-stakes blunders that have not only cost general managers their jobs but have also left dedicated fans feeling restless. These crucial missteps have profoundly influenced the current landscape of the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs, now regarded as an elite dynasty, trace their success back to a pivotal moment in the 2017 draft when 10 teams opted to pass on Patrick Mahomes. Teams like the Browns, Bears, 49ers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, and Bengals all decided that Mahomes was not worthy of their first-round pick. This decision would haunt them for years to come, as Mahomes ultimately fell to the Bills at the 10th spot.

While the Bills made the trade that sent Mahomes to the Chiefs, they were left scratching their heads as Mahomes proceeded to dominate the league. The next eight years would see the Chiefs triumph over the Bills in four consecutive playoff encounters.

The only team in that draft cohort that took a quarterback in the top 10 was the Bears, who selected Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky’s tenure in Chicago lasted just four seasons before he was shown the door. Strikingly, the eight teams that passed on Mahomes have yet to find a quarterback that has achieved even a single MVP award or Super Bowl ring, while Mahomes boasts two MVPs and three championship titles.

A New Generation of Quarterbacks in 2018

The NFL saw the emergence of another generation of exceptional quarterbacks in 2018 when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson entered the league alongside Mahomes. However, before either would attain MVP status, teams made a string of questionable selections.

The Browns, with the No. 1 pick, chose Baker Mayfield, surprising many fans and analysts. While Mayfield did lead Cleveland to its first playoff victory, the decision to bypass Allen and Jackson has led to ongoing second-guessing, particularly now as the Browns face an uncertain quarterback situation without Mayfield.

The Jets fared even worse with their selection of Sam Darnold. Darnold’s disappointing three-year stint with New York left fans yearning for more, particularly as Allen emerged as a formidable force for the Bills, becoming a primary rival in the division.

Trade Mistakes of 2018

The most glaring draft blunder of 2018 came from the Arizona Cardinals, who gave up valuable picks to move up and select Josh Rosen. With Allen already off the board, Rosen underperformed and was out of Arizona within a season, leaving the Cardinals to deal with the repercussions of that decision for years.

Meanwhile, Jackson, who would go on to win an MVP award, slipped to the end of the first round when the Ravens traded back into the draft to snag him, further complicating the draft narratives for several teams.

Successes Amidst Blunders

Despite several misses, some teams managed to make strong picks in that draft cycle. The Bengals selected Joe Burrow, who, following an injury-impacted rookie season, quickly joined the ranks of elite quarterbacks. The discussion around the 2020 quarterback class often includes both Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, who have led their teams to playoff appearances. Yet their success comes with a caveat; they both passed on Jalen Hurts, who has already claimed a Super Bowl title.

Review of Later Drafts

In 2021, the Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence first overall, yet he has not lived up to the lofty expectations many had set. Other quarterback selections that year simply did not yield satisfactory results either. Zach Wilson’s struggles with the Jets and Trey Lance’s minimal impact with the 49ers collectively paint a bleak picture for that class.

In contrast, the 2022 draft saw the emergence of Brock Purdy, selected as the last pick. Purdy stepped in as a starter for the 49ers, leading them to a Super Bowl appearance following a series of injuries to other quarterbacks.

The Recent Drafts and Future Implications

While Bryce Young was the first overall pick in 2023, his inconsistent performance has raised eyebrows, especially considering the Bears secured a top pick in 2024 as a result. The Bears utilized that selection to grab Caleb Williams, a highly coveted prospect, leaving Carolina fans to watch as C.J. Stroud flourished while Young struggled.

The narrative around these quarterback selections continues to evolve, and as teams reflect on their decisions, the data increasingly illustrates the difficulty of the quarterback draft. Washington’s choice to select Jaden Daniels, who has impressed, adds another layer to the ongoing dialogue about quarterback talent evaluation in the NFL.

A Look Ahead

The next few seasons will reveal how the folly of these decisions will shape team fates. As franchises analyze their draft classes, the urgency to find a franchise quarterback remains paramount. For those teams that made the wrong choice in previous drafts, the cost of those errors will linger long into the future, illustrating that drafting the right quarterback is critical for building a successful team.