Political Turmoil in Israel as Netanyahu Faces Coalition Crisis Over Conscription Dispute

Political Turmoil in Israel as Netanyahu Faces Coalition Crisis Over Conscription Dispute

Israel is currently embroiled in a significant political crisis that threatens to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition government. A key partner in the coalition, an ultra-Orthodox party, is expressing intentions to withdraw from the government. This move could bolster an opposition-led initiative to dissolve the Knesset, potentially altering the nation’s political landscape.

Recent opinion polls suggest that Netanyahu’s coalition would be at risk of losing power if elections were to take place immediately. The crux of this crisis revolves around long-standing tensions regarding military conscription practices for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men.

The Conscription Debate

In Israel, the military service requirement mandates that most citizens serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for three years, while women serve for two years. Historically, ultra-Orthodox men have been granted exemptions from this service, a policy that many citizens now find increasingly unacceptable, especially in light of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

A political correspondent for Haaretz, Amir Tibon, articulated that the main conflict shaking Netanyahu’s coalition is not merely one of religion versus state; rather, it is shaped profoundly by the reality of war in Gaza and the pressing question of who is compelled to fight. Discrimination against military service members resonates with a significant majority of the Israeli populace, who are calling for an end to the exemptions.

Estimating the Impact

According to estimates from the IDF, around 60,000 ultra-Orthodox men are of conscription age. Amit Segal, a political correspondent for Channel 12, indicated that the current crisis traces back to the October 7 massacre. There were already significant frustrations among many Israelis concerning Haredi draft exemptions before the outbreak of conflict. With personnel shortages in the IDF, these tensions have intensified.

Segal remarked that Netanyahu’s coalition is considering October 21, 2025, as a potential election date. However, should the ultra-Orthodox parties decide to leave the coalition, early elections could swiftly become necessary. While Segal suggested that it’s unlikely those parties would choose to destabilize the government, which aligns with their interests, he acknowledged that their departure could precipitate elections sooner than anticipated.

Judicial Pressure

In a ruling from March, Israel’s Supreme Court declared that the current draft exemptions are unconstitutional and instructed the government to address this contentious issue. However, Netanyahu’s coalition, heavily reliant on the 18 seats from the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, remains deeply divided. The Haredi parties are advocating for new legislation that would secure their exemptions legally. Without this commitment from the government, they threaten to withdraw their support.

Rising Stakes

Should such a withdrawal occur, the repercussions for Netanyahu’s coalition could be severe. Segal highlighted the urgency of the situation, noting that the Prime Minister has about seven weeks until the Knesset enters a lengthy recess. This timeframe adds pressure on Netanyahu to navigate the crisis effectively. While a bill aimed at dissolving the Knesset is set to be introduced next week, the road ahead remains uncertain.

This bill, put forth by the opposition party Yesh Atid, which is led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, aims for a vote on June 11. To pass, it would require 61 votes, a target that could be achieved if a few members of the coalition defect.

The Political Landscape Ahead

Amid this turmoil, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is making a political comeback with plans to establish a new party, tentatively named “Bennett 2026.” According to recent polls from Israeli media, Bennett’s new venture could garner between 24 and 28 seats if an election were held imminently, surpassing Netanyahu’s Likud party, which is projected to receive only 19 to 22 seats.

The developments in Israeli politics will serve as a crucial indicator of public sentiment regarding military service and the balance of power between the state and religious communities. As Netanyahu grapples with these challenges, the reactions of ultra-Orthodox leaders and their political maneuvering will likely play pivotal roles in shaping the future government.

Looking Ahead

In closing, the standoff over conscription is not merely a political issue; it touches on fundamental questions about national identity, civic duty, and the responsibilities of all citizens in times of war. The outcome of this crisis could have far-reaching implications for Israel’s democratic fabric and for the balance of power within its governing institutions.