Poll Indicates Sherrill Holds Slight Advantage Over Ciattarelli in New Jersey Governor’s Race

Poll Indicates Sherrill Holds Slight Advantage Over Ciattarelli in New Jersey Governor’s Race

As the New Jersey gubernatorial election approaches, a recent poll reveals significant insights into voter sentiment. President Donald Trump may not be on the ballot this year, yet his presence looms large over the election. A notable 11 percentage point gap exists between voters who hold negative views of Trump compared to those with positive opinions. Many voters express a desire to cast their ballots as a form of opposition to the president rather than in support.

Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 52% to 45%, according to a Fox News poll focusing on likely voters in New Jersey. This 7-point lead edges close to the poll’s margin of error, illustrating a competitive race. Earlier polling showed Sherrill with a 5-point lead, while a poll in September indicated an 8-point advantage.

According to Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster collaborating with Democrat Chris Anderson, the outcome hinges significantly on voter turnout. Shaw emphasizes that the enthusiasm of Trump supporters absent from the ballot raises questions about their engagement. While signs indicate high turnout among Sherrill’s supporters, mixed signals emerge regarding Ciattarelli’s backers. Shaw suggests that if the core supporters of Trump mobilize in the final days before the election, the dynamics could shift substantially.

Evaluation of voter enthusiasm further highlights the competitive landscape. Among individuals expressing extreme enthusiasm for voting, Ciattarelli slightly leads by 5 percentage points. However, when considering those who are either extremely or very enthusiastic, Sherrill takes a narrow lead of 4 percentage points. Notably, a larger proportion of Republicans, at 52%, express extreme enthusiasm compared to 40% of Democrats.

Survey responses indicate that an overwhelming 93% of Ciattarelli’s supporters feel certain about their decision to vote for him, while 91% of Sherrill’s backers share that sentiment. Yet, 8% of voters overall state they may change their minds before Election Day. An additional 3% report intentions to vote for third-party candidates or remain undecided.

A gender gap of 17 points highlights contrasting preferences, with Sherrill holding a 16-point lead among female voters, while Ciattarelli has a slight 1-point edge among male voters. Among White voters, Ciattarelli is favored by 4 points, and he leads by 10 points among men without a college degree. Interestingly, 98% of voters identifying strongly with the MAGA movement support Ciattarelli.

Conversely, Sherrill garners substantial backing among non-white voters, leading by 48 points, and she holds a 24-point advantage among voters under 45. Similarly, Sherrill enjoys a 16-point lead among college-educated voters. The poll results reveal that 97% of Democrats support Sherrill, while 92% of Republicans back Ciattarelli. Just 7% of Republicans express support for Sherrill, in contrast to only 1% of Democrats who favor Ciattarelli.

Trustworthiness also influences voter perceptions. A clear majority of New Jersians consider Sherrill to be honest and trustworthy compared to Ciattarelli. The Republican candidate finds himself in negative territory on this measure, with 47% perceiving him as honest versus 53% who do not. Conversely, Sherrill possesses a 13-point advantage, with 56% viewing her favorably on trustworthiness.

The candidates’ favorability ratings further illustrate their positions. Sherrill enjoys a net positive rating of 9 points, with 54% of voters viewing her favorably against 45% unfavorable responses. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli’s net rating reflects more negativity, rated at 46% favorable to 52% unfavorable. Importantly, 28% of voters express strongly favorable views of both candidates. However, Ciattarelli suffers from a greater margin of strongly unfavorable opinions compared to Sherrill by 9 points.

When it comes to key issues in the election, voters trust Ciattarelli to handle crime more effectively, leading by 3 points. Yet, Sherrill draws broader support regarding vital matters like the cost of living, where she holds an 8-point lead, taxes with a 9-point lead, and energy costs with a 10-point lead. A substantial trust gap also exists in healthcare, where Sherrill leads by 16 points.

This race represents a pivotal opportunity to fill the seat previously held by term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. In 2021, Murphy narrowly defeated Ciattarelli by 3 points in his re-election campaign. Public opinion about Murphy is mixed, as 49% of voters hold a favorable view of him compared to 48% who see him negatively. In contrast, Trump faces harsher scrutiny, receiving a 44% favorable rating against 55% unfavorable responses.

Among voters who regard Trump very favorably, a significant 63% express extreme enthusiasm about participating in the gubernatorial race. Conversely, only 39% of voters with a strongly unfavorable view of Trump exhibit similar enthusiasm for the election.

While some voters claim their decision is partly due to support for Trump, a far larger portion — 35% — is voting primarily in opposition to him. About half of the voters indicate that Trump’s presence does not influence their voting decisions. A striking two-thirds of Sherrill’s supporters reveal their intentions to vote as an expression of opposition to Trump, while one-third of Ciattarelli’s backers claim they are voting in support of the former president.

Political analysts note that New Jersey’s election outcomes often serve as indicators for national political trends. They caution that while the predictive value of the race remains unclear, it is evident that Sherrill is likely to gain traction from voters primarily focused on signaling opposition to Trump rather than solely on her campaign.

Historically, New Jersey has not maintained consecutive gubernatorial terms under one party since 1961, suggesting that the 2023 election will be crucial for determining the direction of the state’s political landscape.

Data from the Poll

The Fox News poll, boasting a sample of 1,107 registered New Jersey voters, was conducted from October 24 to October 28, 2025. This sampling method included various outreach strategies, such as live interactions with voters via landlines and cell phones, as well as online survey participation. With a margin of sampling error of approximately 3 percentage points, it offers valuable insights into voter perspectives.

This report also received contributions from Fox News’ Victoria Balara, showcasing a comprehensive examination of the competitive dynamics in New Jersey’s governor’s race.