Taiwan Remains Alert Following Pope Francis’s Death as Vatican-China Relations Hang in the Balance

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan – The recent passing of Pope Francis has left many in Taiwan feeling apprehensive as they anticipate the election of a new leader within the Catholic Church. While the Holy See remains the sole European state to maintain diplomatic relations with Taipei, the growing closeness between the Vatican and Beijing raises concerns among Taiwanese observers.

With fewer than 300,000 Catholics residing in Taiwan compared to estimates of eight to twelve million Catholics in communist China and an additional 390,000 in Hong Kong, the dynamics between the Vatican and its diplomatic partners come into sharp focus. Despite these statistics, the Holy See continues to recognize Taiwan as the legitimate representative of ‘China.’

In a swift response to the pope’s death, Taiwan’s President William Lai expressed his intention to attend the funeral. Shortly thereafter, however, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that former Vice President and dedicated Catholic Chen Chien-jen would be sent as Taiwan’s envoy.

Historical Precedent and Diplomatic Nuances

Ross Feingold, a Taipei-based lawyer and political risk analyst, articulated Taiwan’s disappointment over President Lai’s absence from this significant event. Feingold noted, “The precedent exists for Taiwan’s president to attend a pope’s funeral. In 2005, then-President Chen Shui-bian participated in John Paul II’s funeral. Given this context, it’s reasonable to assume that President Lai’s team likely explored the possibility of his attendance and that the response from the Holy See was likely negative. ”

Since his papacy began in 2013, Pope Francis has sourced diplomatic avenues with Beijing, culminating in a contentious agreement signed in 2018 regarding the appointment of bishops. This pact, renewed multiple times, grants both the Vatican and the Chinese government a role in selecting bishops, an effort to unite China’s state-controlled Catholic Church with its underground institution loyal to Rome. Although Vatican officials insist the arrangement is purely pastoral, many in Taiwan perceive it as a troubling sign.

Challenging Diplomatic Landscape

Beijing severed ties with the Holy See in 1951 and mandates that any nation establishing relations with it must first break ties with Taiwan. Currently, Taiwan’s official diplomatic allies total only 12, with the Holy See holding significant symbolic importance among them.

However, Thomas Tu, an expert in Vatican diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, reassured that concerns about an imminent diplomatic switch may be exaggerated. Tu emphasized, “This engagement is not merely political; it represents a global Catholic mission. The Vatican has navigated through empires and remains patient.” He further illustrated his point by referencing the Vatican’s dealings with Vietnam, emphasizing that the Vatican maintains liaison even without formal diplomatic ties.

Pope Francis’s Approach to China

Pope Francis maintained that engagement with China, despite its complexities, is favorable to a total disengagement. Notably, he was the first pope to traverse Chinese airspace and extended greetings to President Xi Jinping in 2014. During his visit to Mongolia in 2023, he also sent warm regards to the Chinese people.

Each effort to reach out to Beijing has drawn criticism from within the Church, particularly from vocal opponents of the Chinese regime, such as 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong. Zen faced arrest in 2022 after China imposed a National Security Law that curtailed dissent in the region. Recently, authorities returned his passport, enabling him to participate in the pope’s funeral.

Zen and his supporters perceive any warming of relations with Beijing as a form of capitulation to a regime that is officially atheist.

The Control of the Chinese Communist Party

Since 1957, the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association has exercised strict control over millions of Chinese Catholics. Although Pope Francis has accepted certain compromises with China, the Vatican seeks independence in its spiritual affairs, a goal that may seem nearly impossible under China’s one-party rule.

Some analysts speculate that Beijing might eventually create more room for the Vatican, but any formal agreement would necessitate the Holy See’s severance of ties with Taiwan, a condition that remains non-negotiable for Chinese authorities.

Future Implications

With a new pope poised to be elected in the coming month, people in Taiwan watch closely to gauge any potential shifts in Vatican diplomacy. Yet, many experts argue that the next pontiff is unlikely to make sudden moves. Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow at the ROC Society for Strategic Studies, remarked, “There’s no hurry. The Vatican understands patience, and currently, China is unwilling to extend the same privileges to the Chinese Catholic community that are typical in most other countries. This decades-long rift represents merely a fleeting moment in the broader history of the Church and the expansive timeline of Chinese civilization.”