Trump’s Middle East Visit: Potential for New Relations with Syria Amid Challenges

Trump’s Middle East Visit: Potential for New Relations with Syria Amid Challenges

President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, marking his first significant overseas trip since assuming office. The president intends to pursue major trade agreements and diplomatic advancements throughout the Middle East.

Unexpectedly, he may find a partner in Syria’s newly appointed president, who could provide a significant diplomatic breakthrough for the United States.

Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), emphasized the opportunity presented to the U.S. during this pivotal moment. Hall stated that allowing this chance to slip away would be detrimental.

Trump appears receptive to reestablishing ties with Syria, which could involve lifting long-standing sanctions imposed during Bashar al-Assad’s administration.

The president mentioned during a recent Oval Office briefing, “We may take [sanctions] off of Syria, because we want to give them a fresh start.” He further expressed that the U.S. would assess its stance on Syria sanctions at an appropriate time.

Hall pointed out that Syria’s current leadership is no longer reliant on Iran for survival and is even hostile towards the Iranian regime. This change presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. to engage with Syria strategically.

Conversations Between Leaders

Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, recently conducted over three hours of discussions with Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus. Moustafa revealed to reporters that they deliberated on the potential for improving U.S.-Syrian relations, which have been severed since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011.

During this time, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of more than 500,000 individuals. Moustafa’s efforts include advocating for a meeting between al-Sharaa and Trump during the president’s visit to the Gulf region. For Syria’s fledgling government, this meeting represents a rare opportunity to engage with the U.S. government.

The Syrian regime aspires to foster bilateral cooperation on intelligence matters and to create a conducive environment for American businesses considering investments in Syria. Hall elaborated that such dialogues aim to alleviate any concerns the White House might hold.

Cautions Amid Optimism

Notably, not everyone shares the enthusiasm regarding a potential partnership with Syria. Robert Ford, the former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, cautioned against moving too quickly. He noted that while Sharaa’s government is not currently restricting liberties, it should not be classified as a democratic regime.

Ford, the last U.S. ambassador in Damascus before the embassy closed in October 2011, expressed skepticism about the regime’s stability. He remarked, “He doesn’t control all of Syria yet. The government in Damascus that he leads is not very strong and it will take time to reassert all of its authority over Syria.”

While Ford does not anticipate a resurgence of terrorism from al-Sharaa’s government, he underscores the necessity for the U.S. to maintain realistic expectations regarding Syria’s capabilities. Ford warned that the nation is frail both militarily and economically, which influences its ability to engage in substantial agreements.

Syrian Government’s Position

A senior Syrian Foreign Ministry official conveyed President al-Sharaa’s commitment to building a robust strategic alliance with the U.S., emphasizing mutual interests and partnership. The official asserted that the regime views President Trump as key to achieving Middle Eastern peace.

Moustafa later reported that he also met with members of the National Security Council to relay al-Sharaa’s intent to pursue this strategic partnership.

Significant developments have indicated the new Syrian leadership’s willingness to engage cooperatively on U.S. priorities. Recent cooperation with U.S. intelligence and the prevention of several ISIS plots demonstrate this new direction.

Concerns Over Partnerships

Despite these promising signs, Moustafa voiced concerns over the Iranian-backed militias accumulating along the Iraqi frontier, which also pose a challenge for the U.S. administration as they work to negotiate terms with Iran regarding its nuclear ambitions.

Furthermore, al-Sharaa, who was once aligned with the Islamist militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), faces scrutiny. After leading HTS in a successful campaign against the Assad regime in December, he had a $10 million bounty placed on him that the U.S. lifted in favor of diplomatic outreach.

Given HTS’s designation as a foreign terrorist organization, the prospect of establishing business relations in Syria remains fraught with complications.

Caroline Rose, director of The New Lines Institute, cautions about the implications of any U.S. concessions. She noted the critical question regarding whether recent shifts in behavior signified a permanent change in the character and governance of Syria under its new leadership.

Rose pointed out that although HTS may appear to adopt moderating tendencies, the stability of the new governing structure amidst ongoing sectarian tensions remains uncertain.

The Path Forward

Under al-Sharaa’s leadership, a transitional government was formed, comprising close allies from the HTS and a diverse mix of technocrats and former opposition leaders. The signed temporary constitution promises fundamental freedoms and seeks to ensure equal rights for all ethnic and religious groups within Syria.

However, this constitution also bestows significant powers on the president, who can declare a state of emergency and suspend rights in the name of national security. Such concentrated powers are reminiscent of Syria’s authoritarian past under Assad.

Even as optimism about Syria’s future grows, findings from civil unrest indicate that peace remains elusive. Recurring violent clashes have reignited fears of the ongoing turmoil within the country.

According to reports, security forces confronted violent protests led by remnants of the Assad regime, resulting in approximately 200 fatalities among those in security forces. The Syrian Network for Human Rights documented additional casualties attributed to armed groups loyal to the regime.

Amidst these challenges, Syria’s diverse ethnic landscape poses significant hurdles for the governing authority as it seeks to maintain control over various factions within the country.