Trump’s Tariffs Challenge Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Ambitions in Canada

Trump’s Tariffs Challenge Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Ambitions in Canada

The Calgary Petroleum Club is a venue steeped in tradition, featuring dark wooden walls and an atmosphere enriched by the presence of wealthy patrons. Recently, I met with Gary Mar, a prominent businessman and former official, to discuss the ramifications of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian politics.

Mar served as the minister-counselor of Alberta to the United States from 2007 to 2011 and continues to be engaged in national political dialogues.

A Shift in Political Landscape

Following the recent election of Mark Carney as the new leader of the Liberal Party, I wanted to explore the surge in support for the Liberals since the onset of Trump’s tariff policies. There is a growing concern regarding how Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre can navigate these turbulent waters as Canada approaches its next election.

According to Mar, the political landscape hinges on two main issues. First, who can best manage relations with President Trump? Second, who is most capable of stewarding the economy effectively? The ongoing trade war undoubtedly influences the public’s perception of these issues.

Understanding Trump’s Motives

Mar emphasized the importance of comprehending Trump’s motivations for imposing tariffs. He identified four possible reasons: boosting U.S. manufacturing, generating revenue for tax reductions, addressing the trade deficit, and leveraging non-trade issues, such as the fentanyl crisis at the Canadian border.

As a former diplomat, Mar expressed particular concern regarding the fourth motive for the tariffs. This raises a significant question for Poilievre: what does Trump require from Canada to alleviate the current situation? Without a clear understanding of this dynamic, Poilievre faces a precarious political environment.

Political Ramifications for Poilievre

Poilievre’s alignment with Trump following his support for the anti-vaccine-mandate trucker protests in Ottawa in 2022 has left him in a challenging position. Currently, Trump has become a polarizing figure in Canada, and recent polling shows the Conservative Party has lost 20 percentage points in just two months.

As Poilievre navigates these treacherous waters, the Liberals are already utilizing media advertisements to link him directly with Trump’s controversial image.

During our conversation, I posed a question to Mar regarding whether it would be more advantageous politically for Poilievre if Trump were to praise or insult him. Without hesitation, Mar responded that it would be better for Trump to insult him.

Becoming Frenemies with Trump

Finding a way to coexist with Trump while defending Canadian sovereignty presents a significant challenge for Poilievre. He must embody the role of a younger sibling who stands firm against a domineering older brother. This balancing act is crucial, especially as the political climate in Canada experiences a surge in nationalism, a sentiment that has recently gained considerable traction.

Calgarians, including Mar, have noted an unprecedented level of Canadian nationalism, partly fueled by Trump’s repeated remarks about making Canada the ’51st state’. This growing sentiment complicates Poilievre’s strategies.

The Road Ahead for Poilievre

The upcoming election is anticipated for April 2024. If the tariff situation can be resolved promptly, Poilievre may find the space necessary to focus on his preferred issues during the campaign.

During my recent visit to Calgary, I encountered a gathering of approximately 40 to 50 women advocating for the exclusion of biological men from women’s prisons. Engaging with participants like Heather Mason, who was incarcerated when this policy was enacted, revealed a clear message: ‘It has to stop.’ Poilievre has publicly aligned himself with this sentiment and expressed his intent to enact a ban on men in women’s prisons.

Despite these pressing issues, the trade war dominates headlines, leaving little room for the Conservative Party to address other areas of concern.

The Broader Implications

Trump’s primary responsibility is to act in the best interest of the American populace, not to secure electoral victories for Canadian conservatives. Nevertheless, maintaining a strong and cooperative relationship with Canada is undoubtedly in America’s interests due to the nation’s close economic ties.

In Canada, the Liberal Party appears eager to capitalize on the current political climate. There are whispers about plans for an early election, fueled by a sense of momentum. The Liberals likely perceive the ongoing trade tensions as advantageous during the electoral process.

Mar humorously remarked that two triggers significantly elevate Canadian nationalism: warfare and sports. He cited the current trade conflict alongside the rekindling of the hockey rivalry between the USA and Canada as factors contributing to this national sentiment.

Positioned within this environment, Poilievre must consider his approach to Trump carefully. Striking the right balance between friendship and rivalry could have lasting effects on the relationship between the U.S. and Canada.

Navigating the Future

The challenge that Pierre Poilievre now faces may define his future and influence U.S.-Canadian relations for years to come. As he assesses his strategies and navigates the complexities of Trump’s tariffs, the path he chooses will be pivotal in shaping the political landscape in Canada.